On The Edge Blog

Eagles defense needs more consistency

2010-02-01T11:57:00.003-05:00

After watching the first three rounds of the playoffs, it is pretty clear that the Eagles’ defense ranked near the bottom among the 12 playoff teams. In fact, out of those teams, the Birds were 11th in points allowed.

Of the teams that made it to the NFL’s version of the Final Four, the Eagles’ defense would have been shredded by all four of them, as Philadelphia struggled to stop the run, and showed throughout the season that they were susceptible to essentially all passing plays.

I understand that Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott was thrown into a very tough position this year, replacing the late Jim Johnson, but he was certainly not up to the task of leading the defense for a Super Bowl contender.

Too many times this year, McDermott went into a game with a bad plan, which was especially clear against New Orleans, San Diego, Dallas and even Oakland.

Going by Jim Johnson’s belief that 17 points is the magic number for a defense, McDermott failed 11 out of 17 times this year. Johnson always said that if the defense surrenders 17 points or more, the blame should fall on the ‘D’ in a loss. Based on that premise, the Eagles’ offense bailed out the defense six times this year, while failing to back up a strong defensive effort just once (Oakland).

Based on those numbers, the Birds will need to improve both the roster and the game plans drastically, because in 2008, the defense failed only eight of 19 times, and in the process, the Eagles made it within a few minutes of the Super Bowl.

Here are my predictions and thoughts on the Eagles’ roster by position:

Defensive Line: This is one part of the defense that I thought pulled its weight, as linemen accounted for 38 of the 44 sacks this season. Trent Cole and Juqua Parker combined for 20.5 sacks this season off the edge, and Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley were forces up the middle. I really don’t have any complaints about this group, and I would love to see the same nine or 10 guys come back next year, which could happen. I imagine the Eagles will use a few late-round picks to push for the final spot in the rotation, but I wouldn’t expect big changes here.

Linebackers: Remember that statistic I just gave you about the Eagles’ linemen registering all but six sacks this year? That’s a good thing for the guys in the trenches, but it’s a terrible sign for the linebackers, who came up with just 4.5 sacks this season, and 1.5 of those sacks came in the first game of the season.

That means Chris Gocong, Akeem Jordan, Omar Gaither, Moise Fokou, Tracy White, Will Witherspoon, Jeremiah Trotter and Joe Mays combined for just three sacks in the final 15 games of the season! By the way, 22 linebackers had at least 4.5 sacks this season on their own in the NFL.

The lousy numbers don’t stop there. The linebackers combined for just three forced fumbles and four interceptions this year, giving the ever-changing middle group a total of 11.5 big plays this season. That’s less than three plays per month!

I know that people will point to Stewart Bradley’s injury as an excuse for this unit, but while he was a tackling machine in 2008, he only accounted for one interception, one sack and one forced fumble last year, so his presence would not have greatly altered those statistics.

It is pretty obvious the Eagles need to improve at the linebacker position. Hopefully, the front office will resist the urge to go with a combination of Bradley, Jordan, Witherspoon and Gocong, but I have a terrible feeling that is what will be on the field in September.

If I had my way, the Eagles would send Gocong and Gaither packing, replacing them with actual edge-rushers. It’s astounding that the Eagles can’t find someone to simply run around the edge on Cole’s side, forcing a left tackle to choose between allowing a defensive end or a linebacker to crush his quarterback.

The Eagles should spend their first round pick on a superstar outside linebacker like Navorro Bowman from Penn State or possibly wait until the second round and grab someone like Sean Weatherspoon or Eric Norwood if they decide that free safety is the top priority.

Honestly, I don’t really care who the Eagles draft at linebacker, just don’t give me a mid-round project pick from a small school like Gocong, Brian Smith or Matt McCoy.

Secondary: The Eagles obviously need a free safety to replace Brian Dawkins, as Macho Harris, Quintin Demps and Sean Jones did not adequately fill in for Weapon X in 2009. They need to draft a do-it-all safety, instead of playing mix-and-match with three guys.

Jones did a great job against the run, but was too slow in pass coverage. Demps can cover a slot receiver, but is too small to handle the run. Harris can’t do either, but does a superb job of picking up unnecessary roughness penalties.

The goal here should be to draft Taylor Mays out of USC in the first round. At 6-3, 236 pounds, Mays is described to have “top-end speed” by Scouts, Inc., and would certainly make a difference on run defense when the Eagles drop into their nickel package, unlike Harris or Demps. Mays played all four years at USC, registering 268 tackles, including 88 as a senior, and would immediately make this unit better.

At cornerback, we will have to accept that Asante Samuel will never tackle a player, but his NFL-leading nine interceptions do make up for his lack of physicality. Joselio Hanson is an excellent nickel corner, but Sheldon Brown needs to be replaced. He has never had good speed, but always had good instincts. For whatever reason, this year, Brown seemed susceptible to the double-move, so without “make up” speed, he was burned repeatedly, especially down the stretch.

My guess is that the Eagles will keep Brown because of his low salary, but bring in an Ellis Hobbs-type corner to play dime and occasionally on the outside.

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Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show.

Will Eagles' offense look different next year?

2010-01-20T11:56:00.003-05:00

It has been more than a week since the Eagles’ season ended with back-to-back losses at the hands of the hated Dallas Cowboys, and while it was tough to even watch football last weekend, it did make me feel good to see the Cowboys get crushed.

After Dallas lost to Minnesota, I realized that the Eagles are not as far away from being an elite team as I had thought after losing by a combined 58-14 to the Cowboys. I think Dallas, and its 3-4 defense, along with its rare combination of having Pro Bowlers at tight end and wide receiver, gave the Eagles fits, but there is no way the Birds are 50 points worse than the Vikings.

But, just because the Eagles aren’t as bad as I thought, it doesn’t mean they don’t need to make some roster adjustments in the next three months.

This week, I will look at the moves needed to make the Eagles’ offense, which put up a franchise-record 429 points in 2009, a unit that cannot be stopped by simply blitzing and then bracketing the wide receivers after playing press coverage.

Here are my predictions and thoughts on the Eagles’ offense by position:

Quarterback: This is obviously the most contentious part of the roster, but it is pretty simple actually. Both Donovan McNabb, who will be in the Pro Bowl because either Brett Favre or Drew Brees will be playing in Super Bowl, and Kevin Kolb each have one year remaining on their contracts. Because of the franchise tag, the Eagles should not be in a rush to extend either player, and simply let McNabb prove he deserves an extension, or hand the keys over to Kolb if McNabb gets injured or shows that the offense isn’t working with him at the helm.

Regardless of what people say about McNabb, the Eagles did score the most points in franchise history, so he couldn’t have been that bad!

Regarding Michael Vick, the roster bonus he is set to receive in March should not force the Birds to trade him before they get what they are hoping for, and I would expect to see either the Raiders or Rams give the Eagles a second round pick for taking the one-year public relations hit attached to signing Vick during the preseason.

Running Back: Despite a case of fumblitis in the first round of the playoffs, Leonard Weaver was the best offseason pickup for the Birds, and deservedly made the Pro Bowl this year. More importantly, his 85 touches showed the Eagles that a big back can really move the chains. With Brian Westbrook looking into retirement (and probably wouldn’t be back anyway at a cost of more than $7 million), the Eagles will have an opening in the backfield.

While very explosive, LeSean McCoy is not a running back who can handle 20 carries per game, but then again, only three running backs in the NFL topped 20 carries per game (320 carries) this season, and only 12 running backs even topped 240 carries (15 per game).

That means the Eagles, who finally saw the benefits of having a powerful running back, will use Westbrook’s roster spot to sign or draft their first 230-pounder since Duce Staley for the tailback position.

We all saw how effective Weaver was this season, averaging 4.6 yards per carry, which was better than McCoy or Westbrook, but all of those yards occurred without a fullback in front of him because he was the fullback. Now imagine what would happen if the Eagles drafted a certain Heisman candidate from Stanford, and then put him behind Weaver. The Eagles would finally have a true running game.

I don’t actually know where the Eagles are going to get this power back because of the uncertainty regarding an uncapped season in 2010, which would cause numerous players to become restricted free agents, instead of unrestricted, but I would bet they get one to run behind Weaver.

Wide Receiver: I like the Eagles’ group of receivers, and so does the front office. The only change that I could see being made is replacing the oft-injured Kevin Curtis with a bigger target.

I can’t remember the last time the Eagles had four pass catchers – DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant – who could top 100 yards in any game. That group combined for 10 100-yard games in 2009 and will only get better, as Avant is the old man of the group at just 26 years old.

Offensive Line: The offensive line was simply offensive this season. Last year, McNabb was sacked 23 times in 16 games, while this year, the “revamped” line allowed 38 sacks and was clearly a feast-or-famine unit.

It seemed like the line either played like garbage (see: Oakland, Dallas) or gave McNabb all the time in the world to throw a touchdown pass (see: New York, Atlanta, Tampa Bay).

In the offseason, the Eagles threw big-money deals at Stacy Andrews and Jason Peters, but neither player worked out. Both Andrews brothers saw about as much time as I did on the offensive line this year, and while Peters helped the ground game, he whiffed on defensive ends far too often to justify his mind-boggling Pro Bowl selection this season.

I don’t think the Eagles are going to cut either Andrews brother or Peters, but it was simply irresponsible to think that Stacy could be effective just nine months after tearing two ligaments in his knee. However, with another year of rehab and practice, Stacy could once again become the physical run blocker the Eagles hoped they were getting last February.

Now to the other Andrews. I can’t imagine the Eagles would cut Shawn after holding onto him all season, but they won’t count on him being one of the 10 linemen they plan to keep heading into the 2010 season. If he is healthy and wants to play, he could be an All-Pro tackle or guard on the right side, but anything they get out of him should be considered a bonus at this point.

It is obvious that improvements need to be made to the Eagles offensive line, but I would not expect the front office to make any moves except to bring in a few big bodies for depth purposes. My guess is that the front office hopes the rash of injuries that plagued the line will not occur in 2010, allowing the talented unit to develop some real chemistry.

Predictions for Sunday’s conference championship games: New Orleans erases years of “Aints” memories with a 37-24 win over the Vikings, while Peyton Manning continues to make his case for being called the greatest quarterback in NFL history as the Colts end the Jets’ Cinderella run with a 24-13 victory.

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Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week we will break down the NFL’s conference title games, and further our discussion on what the Eagles need to do this spring to improve their roster.

Loss shows Westbrook is gone, McDermott should be

2010-01-15T11:25:00.002-05:00

Thud!

That was the sound of the Eagles’ season crashing to halt at the hands of the Dallas Cowboys.

It was also the sound of Brian Westbrook’s time in Philadelphia coming to an abrupt end.

However, it apparently is not the sound of Donovan McNabb’s time in Philadelphia coming to an end.

While Andy Reid said that McNabb would be back as the starting quarterback of the Eagles, Westbrook received just one touch against the Cowboys on Saturday night, despite Leonard Weaver putting the ball on the ground twice in the second quarter. That should be a clear sign that Westbrook is not going to be back next year.

While Westbrook wasn’t able to make a difference in his final game for the Birds, Sean McDermott made the case that this should be his first and last playoff game as a defensive coordinator.

For the second week in a row, McDermott’s defense disappeared when they were needed most.

Last week, the Eagles rushed four linemen, yet played a completely passive pass defense. This week was a little different, as they blitzed far more often, yet at no point did McDermott realize that the Cowboys might make a few adjustments to slow down the amped-up pass rush.

How many times did the Cowboys run a simple screen pass or a draw play to pick up big yardage as the Eagles blitzed six or seven rushers? More importantly, why didn’t the Eagles think to do that as the Cowboys’ defenders surrounded McNabb on nearly every key play of the game?

I can’t believe I am writing this, but Wade Phillips out-coached Andy Reid, Sean McDermott and Marty Mornhinweg two weeks in a row. The Eagles did not have an answer for the Cowboys’ pass rush, ground game, or aerial attack, so the more complete team will be playing in the second round of the playoffs this weekend.

In the next few weeks, I will outline what steps I believe the Eagles need to take this offseason to improve this young roster, and make it the type of team that could beat any team in the NFL, not just the ones that were .500 or worse this year.

By the way, I am not sure if anyone noticed, but in a crazy coincidence, hockey season began in Philadelphia on the very same day that the Eagles’ season ended. The Flyers even won their “season opener,” 4-1, with the shockingly solid Michael Leighton between the pipes.

Quick thoughts and observations:

* Why can’t the Eagles run the ball? I doubt that the Birds will ever be a team that focuses on the run, but they have to at least make it easier for the passing game. After watching the first round of the playoffs, it is pretty clear that a team needs to be able to run the football to succeed, as the New York Jets, Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys all had rushers top 130 yards. Arizona was the only team to win last weekend without a running back reaching triple digits on the ground, but Beanie Wells came close, rushing for 93 yards on 14 carries.

However, in the last two weeks against the Cowboys, the Eagles’ running backs have combined for less than 70 yards total! That is simply unacceptable regardless of how talented DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are at wide receiver.

* What happened to Sheldon Brown this season? We all know that he picked off five passes, which is a new career high, but he played like a Pop Warner kid the last few weeks of the season. Not only did he get repeatedly burned for touchdown passes since the game against Denver three weeks ago, the Cowboys must have seen something in their film sessions that showed them a weakness in his ability, because Miles Austin and Patrick Crayton had absolutely no problem making him look old and slow in the last two games.

In addition to being one of the main reasons the Eagles’ season ended, Brown practically handed Andy Reid and Joe Banner videotape evidence that he doesn’t deserve a new big-money deal this offseason, which he has craved for nearly a year. In the same three-week span, he also showed the NFL that switching to safety – the same career path that Troy Vincent took – was not an option, as Miles Austin blew right by Brown when he lined up at safety to help Asante Samuel contain Tony Romo’s new favorite wide receiver.

* How awesome was Arizona’s 51-45 overtime victory over Green Bay? That game could go down as the most exciting playoff game in history. Aaron Rodgers and Kurt Warner combined for 801 passing yards and 10 total touchdowns, but it took a defensive touchdown to decide the game, and catapult it passed the Eagles’ 58-37 victory over the Lions in 1995 for the most combined points in playoff history.

Predictions: Saints, Vikings, Ravens and Chargers advance.
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Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week we will discuss why the Eagles couldn’t solve the Cowboys this season, and take an early look at where the Eagles need to improve this spring.

Cowboys dominate Eagles as Westbrook hinders offense

2010-01-06T11:17:00.002-05:00

So much for being the hottest team in the NFL.

With an uninspired 24-0 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, the Eagles squandered their chances at getting a week off and a guaranteed home playoff game. Instead, the Birds will head back to Dallas to face the NFL’s current hottest team in the first round of the playoffs.

So why did the Eagles go from a team riding a six-game winning streak to a team that couldn’t score a single point in a game that had serious playoff implications?

I am probably going to have a lot of people disagreeing with me, but the problem is Brian Westbrook.

I completely respect the fact that coming into this season, Westbrook was basically the only weapon the Eagles had on offense since Terrell Owens talked his way out of town, however, he is now preventing the Eagles from playing like the team that set the franchise record for points in a season.

In the seven games that Westbrook missed with a concussion, Leonard Weaver and LeSean McCoy combined to average just more than 20 carries per game, however against the Cowboys, each player received one carry.

Not using Weaver and McCoy would be fine if Westbrook had been playing well, but he ran the ball just five times for 17 yards, which means that the Eagles got almost no production from their backfield.

It would be easy to look at those numbers and say that Andy Reid reverted back to his stubborn, pass-happy ways, but I believe the problem is more complex than that.

Any year before 2009 (now 2010), Westbrook was a dangerous weapon, but despite being declared healthy, he is not as elusive out of the backfield as he was in previous seasons. Combine that with the idea that maybe Reid doesn’t trust Westbrook to run the ball without getting re-injured, and suddenly, a once explosive running back is actually the third best player at his position on the Birds’ roster.

The reason that the Eagles’ offense thrived when Westbrook was on the sidelines was that teams had to worry about the run and the pass, regardless of which running back was behind Donovan McNabb. This means the defense could never line up to defend just the pass or just the run, allowing the wide receivers more room to get open, while giving both Weaver and McCoy more lanes to run through.

With Westbrook in the game, the Eagles pass far more often to minimize his exposure to punishing hits, allowing defenses to drop extra men into coverage, which then limits DeSean Jackson’s ability to roam free.

If Westbrook isn’t as elusive as McCoy, and certainly can’t break tackles like Weaver, then why leave him in the game and make the offense one-dimensional?

I know that it is almost blasphemous to say that Westbrook makes the Eagles’ offense worse, but when was the last time you got excited to see the ball in 36’s hands?

Quick thoughts and observations:

* I don’t understand why Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott decided to rush just four defensive linemen for most of the first half, but if that was the game plan, why did the Eagles’ cornerbacks play so far off of the Cowboys’ receivers?

If McDermott didn’t want to send extra players after Tony Romo, then he could have at least played bump-and-run on the outside to give the linemen a few more seconds to get to the quarterback. I think that is a lousy game plan to begin with, but it was made worse by playing a completely passive pass defense.

It is quite obvious that Romo, or any quarterback in the NFL, can pick apart a defense if he is given plenty of time, but don’t give the wide receivers seven yards before encountering a defensive player.

* Why was Jeremy Maclin returning kickoffs for the Eagles? He has had an excellent rookie season, hauling in 55 passes for 762 yards, but at less than 18 yards per return, the Eagles simply must use someone else back there.

Only twice during the shutout loss did the Eagles start with better field position than their own 20 yard line, which wasn’t entirely Maclin’s fault, but I think he has been far too timid on pass routes and on his returns to be even considered as a viable option.

If Quintin Demps is hurt, and Macho Harris is too careless with the ball, then give Eldra Buckley a shot back there, because field position is a vital piece of the puzzle during the playoffs.

* Anyone else think that Michael Vick is going to get 15 to 20 snaps this weekend? Reid spent the entire offseason working on “Wildcat” plays, yet we have only seen about three or four different plays with Vick on the field. I could be way off, but if there were any time to unleash (sorry for the terrible pun) Vick’s speed and natural ability, it would be against a team that just shut down every normal play in the playbook six days earlier.

Predictions: Eagles fix what went wrong in week 17 while Wade Phillips stands dumbfounded wondering why last week’s game plan doesn’t work for the second time in less than a week. Eagles win 23-17.

Green Bay, Cincinnati and Baltimore also advance to the second round of the playoffs.

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Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week we will focus on what the Eagles need to do to win their playoff battle with the Dallas Cowboys.

Phillies are NOT better after acquiring Halladay

2009-12-18T14:56:00.002-05:00

Winston Churchill once said, “There is nothing wrong with change, if it is in the right direction.”

The problem with the Phillies’ moves this offseason is that I really don’t know if their roster is changing in the right direction.

I like the idea of replacing Pedro Feliz with Placido Polanco at third base, but replacing Cliff Lee with Roy Halladay doesn’t do much for me. In fact, I believe that it makes the Phillies worse for both 2010 and the future.

For the last few days, you couldn’t watch TV, listen to the radio, go online or even walk down the street without hearing someone talking about the Phillies trading for the Toronto Blue Jays' ace.

It finally happened, except it happened five months too late.

Back in July, I wrote a column begging Phillies General Manager Ruben Amaro, Jr., to trade for Roy Halladay. I wrote that it didn’t matter who we sent to Toronto, as long as Halladay was wearing red pinstripes. But when the Phillies downright stole Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians, I was pretty satisfied.

However, I didn’t realize that we could have had BOTH pitchers in red pinstripes for the 2009 playoff run.

As the trade deadline approached, everyone in the Phillies organization swore that Double-A pitching prospect Kyle Drabek was untouchable, which is why the trade talks with the Blue Jays broke down, causing Amaro to turn his attention to Lee.

Apparently Drabek lost that “untouchable” tag in the last few months, because he was included in the deal, making him no longer slated for a mid-2010 debut in the Phillies’ starting rotation.

Now I don’t know if the Blue Jays would have taken a package of Drabek, Michael Taylor and Travis d’Arnaud for Halladay back in July, but I don’t think even the staunchest New York Yankees fan could believe that the Phillies wouldn’t have won back-to-back World Series titles if Halladay and Lee were starting five of the seven games in the Fall Classic.

So why am I so pessimistic about the Phillies losing Cliff Lee – one of the top pitchers in baseball – but gaining Roy Halladay, who is the undisputed best pitcher in baseball? By the way, that claim does include the likes of Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia.

It’s pretty simple. The reason the Phillies fell short in the World Series was that Lee couldn’t pitch every game. Cole Hamels, Pedro Martinez and Joe Blanton weren’t able to manage just one victory in four starts, which would have put the ball back in Lee’s left hand for game 7.

So in 2010, if the Phillies get back to the World Series, Halladay will not be able to pitch every game, which means Hamels, Blanton, J.A. Happ, Jamie Moyer, Pedro, or any other starting pitcher the Phillies can find, would still need to win one or two games in the Fall Classic.

I fully understand that the Phillies would have had absolutely nothing remaining in the minors for the next two or three years if they kept Lee for the 2010 season, but how could they not have paired Halladay and Lee for the 2009 stretch run? They still could have spent the offseason working to trade whoever wasn’t willing to sign a contract extension, but maybe they would have had enough money in the payroll to extend both pitchers if they had won a second World Series. Or they could have traded away Hamels to help alleviate the jump in payroll.

Right now, the Phillies still lose to the Yankees or the Red Sox in six games.

But that just makes their 2010 team the same as the 2009 team that fell just short, so why are they worse?

The fact remains, the Phillies don’t have a pitcher to win game 2 of the World Series, but that pitcher could have been Drabek. If the Phillies convinced Lee to stick around beyond 2010, which apparently he was quite willing to do, the Phillies would still have Drabek to replace Hamels as the ace of the future. Because they traded for Halladay, they don’t have Drabek waiting in the wings to step up.

At this point, the Phillies are hoping that Hamels can recover from whatever ailed him all of 2009, which somehow cost him four or five miles per hour off his fastball, making him go from devastatingly deceptive in the 2008 playoffs to completely hittable in the 2009 playoffs.

Don’t get me wrong, I am very thankful that the Phillies should be competitive for the next few seasons with Halladay locked up through 2013, but walk outside and ask a person wearing an Eagles jersey if they are content with all of the playoff appearances the Birds have made this decade.

I know that the Phillies won it all in 2008, and it is great that they have gotten to a point where the regular season is merely a formality, but falling just short will get old pretty quickly, especially knowing that Lee or Drabek would have been the difference between a parade in Philadelphia and a parade somewhere else.

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Like the "On the Edge" column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. We will be taking off for the holidays, but will be back in full swing in 2010, hopefully talking about the Eagles rolling through the playoffs.

Desperation filling the Wachovia Center

2009-12-09T12:27:00.002-05:00

While the Phillies fine-tune their roster, and the Eagles roll along despite a heaping pile of injuries, Philadelphia’s other two teams spent the last week trying to make themselves relevant in what has become a two-sport town.

The Flyers and Sixers both reached deep down into their “in case of emergency” bags, and pulled out plans that they hope will make people care about hockey and non-college basketball.

Enter a coaching change for the Flyers, and the return of Allen Iverson to the Wachovia Center for the 76ers.

Because the Sixers are destined to be mediocre in a league dominated by two-superstar teams, I’m going to begin by breaking down the Flyers’ troubles.

Right now, the Flyers sit at .500, despite this being one of the most talented teams in franchise history. The Flyers are tied for third/last place in the division, but right now they are on the outside looking in when examining the playoff picture two months into the season.

So, instead of telling their players to hustle and stop taking stupid penalties, the Flyers changed coaches, bringing in Peter Laviolette, who coached the Carolina Hurricanes to the Stanley Cup in 2006.

Obviously, it was John Stevens’ fault that the Flyers average the most penalty minutes per game in the NHL this season. It couldn’t possibly have been the result of lazy play by supposed superstars Danny Briere and Mike Richards. Or the fact that nobody seems to work in the offensive zone, which resulted in a team that has more offensive weapons than any other team in the league scoring just seven goals in their last six games (before last night's six-goal outburst).

However, as much as I liked Stevens as the Flyers coach (Fun fact: Stevens’ tenure was the fourth-longest in franchise history, one game fewer than General Manager Paul Holmgren’s tenure as coach from 1988 to 1991, yet one game longer than Pat Quinn’s tenure from 1979 to 1982), I respect the idea that Laviolette is going to make the Flyers forecheck better and fight less.

Currently, only the Calgary Flames fight more often than the Flyers, but they have all-world goalie Miikka Kiprusoff to bail them out of trouble. The Flyers do not have someone nearly as talented as Kiprusoff to keep them afloat when Dan Carcillo decides to start punching a player before his gloves are dropped, resulting in nine minutes of power play time and three goals for the other team.

Honestly, I think Stevens was a great coach, but a new voice was needed to make up for several mistakes made by the front office in the last few years. It is a shame that a good person like Stevens has to take the fall for a front office that offered $52 million to Briere, which, because of the salary cap, forces them to put re-treads between the pipes.

By the way, Antero Niittymaki has a 2.24 GAA, with a .927 save percentage. Wouldn’t he look great in the crease right now?

This Flyers team is too talented to wallow at the bottom of the Eastern Conference for the rest of the season, so hopefully a coaching change will light a fire under Richards, Jeff Carter, Chris Pronger and the rest of this lazy team.

Switching gears to the NBA, the Sixers don’t have the talent to come back from a slow start, so their only goal is to entice more than 11,000 people to come to South Philly for a basketball game 32 more times this season.

In a conference where six teams – Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, Atlanta, Miami and Chicago – have two players that are better than anyone stepping on the court for the 76ers, Allen Iverson is merely a marketing ploy to make people waste their money at an NBA game, instead of investing it in a Phillies season-ticket package.

If there is another reason for this signing, I can’t see it.

I get that since the Sixers are not a contender for the NBA title, the bottom line is the most important thing, especially in a league that is losing money so quickly that reports had the NBA lining up $200 million in loans last year to help teams make it through the 2008-09 season.

So now, the Sixers, who fill the Wachovia Center approximately to 58 percent of its capacity, decided that money was more important than trying to develop their young talent.

The Sixers have a very young team, and one of their few veterans, Elton Brand, is complaining about coming off the bench, but the Sixers decided that they would bring in Iverson, who has never gotten along with any star player, and refused to come off the bench for Detroit and Memphis.

Iverson couldn’t get along with Jerry Stackhouse, Larry Hughes, Carmelo Anthony or anyone on the Pistons, and then retired because he wasn’t good enough to start for the Grizzlies, who at 8-12, have a better record than the 5-16 Sixers.

If you can tell me how signing A.I., and promising him a starting position will help the development of Thaddeus Young, Marreese Speights, Lou Williams or Jrue Holiday, then you are smarter than I am. How will Iverson throwing up a 6-for-21 night help them develop? He shot less than 40 percent from the floor in 26 out of 57 games last year, so unless the goal is to turn their youngsters into fantastic rebounders, this is a bad move.

All I see is the Sixers bringing in an aging, whiny player, who shoots 42 percent for his career, and managed to alienate every talented player and coach who ever stepped foot in the same arena as him.

This has disaster written all over it.

At least the Flyers can still turn their season around. The Sixers are simply sacrificing their chances next year for the opportunity to make a few extra dollars this year.

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Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philly sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show.

Eagles’ resiliency makes up for sloppy play

2009-12-02T13:45:00.002-05:00

The Eagles escaped from the Linc on Sunday afternoon with a victory despite curious coaching decisions and three more stars needing the help of their overworked trainers.

Beginning with Andy Reid’s decision to try an onside kick to start the game, finishing with DeSean Jackson and Brodrick Bunkley on the sidelines, and Brent Celek dropping three passes along the way, this game had loss written all over it. Then suddenly, Donovan McNabb, Jason Avant and LeSean McCoy decided that a loss to the lowly Redskins was not in the cards.

For the second week in a row, McNabb flawlessly executed a fourth quarter comeback victory to keep the Eagles in a wild-card spot, and just one game behind the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East.

I know that this was an ugly win, but regardless, it is still a win, and last year, this would have been a loss. In fact, last year, this game actually was a loss, as the Eagles squandered a golden opportunity, losing 10-3 to the Redskins in week 16.

However, lately, the Birds seem to have some fourth quarter magic, as they have scored 32 points in the final period in the last three weeks.

Against the Redskins, McNabb was 5-for-7 for 115 yards on the final two drives of the game, but the key to both drives, besides Avant’s fearless ability to go over the middle, was the running game. McCoy and Leonard Weaver combined for 41 yards on eight carries on those drives, which opened things up for a greatly depleted group of wide receivers.

Over the last two weeks, the Eagles have battled inconsistency and injuries, but at the end of the season, these comeback wins over the Redskins and Bears could be the difference between us fans watching football in January or ignoring football in January.

Quick thoughts and observations:

* After Asante Samuel’s interception late in the first half, the Eagles’ offense took over with 19 seconds left in the half, and was able to take the lead on a field goal. The amazing part of this situation is that Philadelphia had all three timeouts with 19 seconds left in the first half! I can’t remember the last time the Eagles went more than 29 minutes without using a timeout.

* Speaking of Samuel, I keep asking this, but I haven’t found an answer, so I’ll ask again: Why does Samuel play football if he doesn’t want to hit anyone? When Samuel goes for a tackle, he slaps at the player or simply falls down. Don’t get me wrong, I appreciate the two interceptions he had against the ‘Skins, but his “tackling” technique has already cost Philadelphia a victory against the Raiders, and I would bet that it is going to cost the Eagles in a big way at some point in December or January.

* The Redskins converted on eight of their first 12 third-down opportunities mostly because guys like Sheldon Brown and Macho Harris were nowhere near the wide receivers before the play. On 3rd-and-4, Brown should be at the line of scrimmage to play press coverage on Santana Moss, but for some reason, he was beyond the first-down marker, and Moss caught a slant for eight yards. If Philly is going to blitz against the Redskins’ sixth different offensive line combination of the season, everyone should know that the quarterback will take a three-step drop and quickly get rid of the ball before getting clobbered. If the defensive backs play press coverage, then the Eagles can get more sacks on third down, and actually get off the field. The exact same thing happened early in the second quarter on Moss’ four-yard touchdown reception. Harris and Jeremiah Trotter were both standing in the end zone, instead of playing closer to the line of scrimmage, so Moss split the two defenders on a quick slant route. Harris never made it out of the end zone to even attempt to cover Moss, who had his easiest six points of the season.

* While I seem to be ripping on the defensive backs a lot, I will commend them for being on the field more than usual, and not complaining about playing different positions. With Joselio Hanson (suspended) and Ellis Hobbs (injured reserve) not on the field, Quintin Mikell, Quintin Demps and Harris have been playing several different positions, including cornerback. The results have been mixed, but the more game-day repetitions they get at cornerback, the more Defensive Coordinator Sean McDermott can mix up his blitzes later in the season.

On Sunday, the Eagles will take on the Atlanta Falcons, who are trying to avoid falling out of contention for a playoff spot, but have announced they will be without their quarterback, Matt Ryan, who left last Sunday’s game with a toe injury.

Prediction: Eagles win the battle of the birds, 31-16.

Like the "On the Edge" column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show.

McNabb backs up 'must win' talk

2009-11-24T15:41:00.002-05:00

The Eagles defeated the Chicago Bears in primetime on a fourth quarter comeback led by Donovan McNabb, but what happens now?

After McNabb declared the game against the Bears as a “must win,” where do the Eagles go from here? Strong safety Quintin Mikell seconded McNabb’s sentiments, but does this mean that every game through the end of the season is also a “must win” game?

McNabb’s play backed up his sense of urgency, but after all, there are six games left in the season, and the Eagles are in the exact same spot as when McNabb made his thoughts known. Dallas, New York and Green Bay all took care of business on Sunday, so the Eagles are still one game behind the Cowboys, and currently occupy one of the two wild card spots based on a head-to-head victory over the Giants and their superior conference record compared to the Packers.

In my opinion, it looks as though McNabb knows that this is the most talented offense he has ever worked with, but that everyone seemed to be on cruise control since giving a beatdown to the Giants at the Linc on Nov. 1.

McNabb’s comments during the week appeared to have fired everyone up, but isn’t it too early in the season to be playing mental games like this?

The Eagles still have a full slate of NFC East games, along with Atlanta, San Francisco and Denver remaining on the schedule. The latter three teams all lost on Sunday, while showing no defensive prowess, which plays right into the Eagles’ game plans, but they certainly won’t win out and roll into the playoffs with a 12-4 record.

So with that in mind, what happens in a few weeks when the Eagles throw a dud out there against an inferior team? How will McNabb fire up the youngsters in mid-December after declaring that a game in week 11 was a “must win,” and more importantly, why do NFL players need to be fired up? They only play 16 times per season, so you would think they would have the same intensity every week.

Nonetheless, the schedule looks pretty nice for the Eagles down the stretch, but they need to keep playing with a must-win attitude, regardless of whether or not McNabb comes out and says that is the case.

Quick thoughts and observations:

* Michael Vick actually did something! He has been a complete waste for most of the season, but on 3rd-and-1 in the first quarter, he came up with a huge 34-yard run, showing some of the pre-prison speed and elusiveness that the Eagles were hoping to see when they signed him in August. In the process, he eclipsed his entire season of rushing productivity on that play.

* With Brian Westbrook sidelined with another concussion, the Eagles used three different running backs against the Bears, all of whom were offseason acquisitions. I have to give Andy Reid credit for this, because there have been quite a few seasons that started with a backfield ill-equipped for handling injuries. The trio of LeSean McCoy, Leonard Weaver and Eldra Buckley combined for a touchdown and 120 yards of total offense against the Bears.

* The Eagles believe that they can throw anyone out there at middle linebacker, but Joe Mays played like a sixth-round draft pick, which should make us all wonder why he was given the first shot at replacing Stewart Bradley in training camp. Mays made just one tackle the entire game, and repeatedly looked to be out of position. Needless to say, the Eagles need Akeem Jordan back in the lineup as the calendar turns to December.

* I know that a lot has been made of the Eagles recent red-zone inefficiency, having kicked four field goals in the last two games, but they have been in the red zone eight times in the last two weeks. Looking at the bright side, they seem to have fixed their inability to sustain drives, and not rely solely on the big play to get them points. Against the Bears, the Eagles racked up 18 first downs, which shows that they are systematically moving the ball, and not waiting for DeSean Jackson to break one, although it certainly isn’t a bad thing when he does.

* The Dallas Cowboys lead the NFC East at 7-3, however, they have only scored 14 points in the last two weeks, after racking up 121 points in their previous four games. Despite their win over the pathetic Washington Redskins on Sunday, the Cowboys appear to have hit their December downturn a little early this year. Predicted finish for the Cowboys: 9-7.

This Sunday, the Eagles should be able to start a nice winning streak to end November, as the Redskins come to town.

Prediction: Eagles roll, 27-9.

Like the "On the Edge" blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will talk about the Eagles’ comeback victory, and discuss the early wheelings and dealings from free agency.

Phillies hot stove heating up

2009-11-18T13:26:00.003-05:00

It has been two weeks since the Phillies’ roster holes were exposed by the New York Yankees, so now begins the part of the year that keeps us glued to the Internet and sports-talk radio stations, because the hot stove is burning white hot around the winners of the National League pennant.

At this point, the Phillies could head in two possible directions with their offseason moves, because their core group of players is guaranteed to be here through 2011, with only Chase Utley, Cole Hamels, Brad Lidge and Carlos Ruiz extended through 2012 or beyond.

With that in mind, General Manager Ruben Amaro could make a flurry of one-year signings, designed to win in 2010, or he could make one or two big moves designed to start a new core group, which would eventually include Domonic Brown, Michael Taylor and Kyle Drabek, who are all tearing up the minors.

Looking at the roster as it currently stands, the Phillies’ starters are set basically everywhere except third base, but they will need to fill in at least one starting pitcher, two relievers, and probably two or three bench spots.

Here are my predictions for the Phillies’ moves this offseason:

Third Base: After saying goodbye, at least temporarily, to Pedro Feliz because his equipment bag includes only a glove, everyone is clamoring for the Phillies to sign Angels’ third baseman Chone Figgins. I would love to see Figgins’ 101 walks and .395 on-base percentage leading off for the Phillies, but unless they find an extra $50 million in a hidden account, he’s not coming here.

The most likely candidate to replace Feliz is former Penn quarterback Mark DeRosa, who could probably be signed for a maximum of three years/$18 million. The only problem with DeRosa is that he struggled last year, hitting just .250 after three consecutive years of .285 or better. If the Phillies sign DeRosa, they will be hoping that he can bring his batting average back up toward .300, and that his power sticks around, because despite hitting 44 homers in the last two years, he only smashed 48 bombs in the previous seven seasons combined.

Wish List: Figgins. Best Guess: DeRosa, with the slight chance that the Phillies believe that Adrian Beltre’s stunning drop-off in power is not a chemical issue.

Starting pitching: With Cliff Lee, Hamels, Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ occupying four spots in the rotation, the Phillies need to decide whether Jamie Moyer can be trusted in the final slot, or if they should release the suddenly not-so-ageless wonder.

Moyer was dumped from the rotation in August, after seeing his ERA, hits per nine innings and home runs allowed all skyrocket compared to his 2008 revival. He succeeded in 2008 by giving up his fewest home runs since 2003, but in 2009, Moyer gave up seven more homers in 34 fewer innings, and saw his ERA jump from 3.71 to 4.94.

It would be great if the Phillies made a big splash and signed Ben Sheets or Rich Harden, because despite their injury history, those are the best bang-for-your-buck guys available. However, the most likely option remains Moyer, or even Kyle Kendrick, who, with new pitches at his disposal, posted a 3.42 ERA in 26 1/3 innings last year.

Wish List: Harden or Sheets. Best Guess: Moyer or Kendrick. Wild Cards: Kyle Drabek and Antonio Bastardo.

Bullpen: The Phillies usually carry either seven or eight relievers, with one or two more stashed on the disabled list or in Lehigh Valley, so after accounting for Lidge, Ryan Madson, Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero, there are four spots open in the bullpen. Scott Eyre and Chan Ho Park, who are both Type B free agents, should return, meaning Clay Condrey will be back with the Phillies only if two relievers aren’t signed.

If the Phillies open up the check book this offseason, they could find themselves with Jose Valverde or Rafael Soriano to play setup man for Brad Lidge, but more importantly prepare for another disaster season from “Lights On” Lidge. Both Soriano and Valverde are proven closers, who posted ERAs under 3.00, while striking out more than one batter per inning in 2009, and would look great mowing down hitters at Citizens Bank Park.

Wish List: Soriano. Best Guess: Fernando Rodney. Wild Card: Scott Mathieson.

Bench: To steal a phrase from Dr. Seuss, the three words that best describe the Phillies’ bench in 2009 are: “stink, stank, stunk.” Matt Stairs will probably take his seemingly 0-for-2009 elsewhere, and Eric Bruntlett will not be offered arbitration. That leaves Ben Francisco for defense, Greg Dobbs as the lefty, and Paul Bako or some other nondescript catcher.

For the final two spots, the Phillies should bring up John Mayberry, Jr., for right-handed power, and sign Mark Loretta to give Ryan Howard a break against tough lefties. Last season, Howard hit .320 against righties, with 39 homers and 108 RBIs, but against lefties, he hit, and I use that term loosely, .207 with 6 homers and 33 RBIs, while striking out 83 times in 222 at-bats.

Wouldn’t it be great to see Howard hit well for a few days against righties, and then get a quick rest so that a four-strikeout night against a lefty doesn’t cause him to go into a three-week slump?

Loretta is a .306 hitter against lefties in his career, and could easily hit seventh in the lineup, allowing Jayson Werth, who hit 46 points higher and homers nearly twice as often against lefties, to bat cleanup once or twice per week.

Wish List: Loretta. Best Guess: Jerry Hairston, Jr.

It would be great if the Phillies added guys like Figgins and Soriano this offseason to make sure that they stay strong when the contracts of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez expire after the 2011 season, but that would mean a huge jump in payroll for the next two years. I think they will opt for the lesser options in each scenario, while relying on Utley, Howard, and Rollins to get them another parade before 2012.

EDITOR'S NOTE: As the author of this article, I sincerely apologize if I offended Domonic Brown. The NFP (Not For Print) note was obviously not meant for publication, but was inserted so the editor would not change the spelling of his name. Nevertheless, it was a bad joke made worse by the poor judgment of placing the note in the run of the story. The only idiot in this case is me.

***

Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will talk about whether Brian Westbrook should be shut down for the season, and discuss the very latest hot stove rumors and reports.

Time for World Series Reflection...

2009-11-09T17:12:00.001-05:00

I had to let this loss settle before I could write coherently about the Phillies squandering their chance at repeating as "World Champions of Baseball."

After the loss on Wednesday night, I had so many thoughts running through my mind, but two of them stuck out from the jumble in my head.

My first thought was that this loss didn't cause the pain and agony that I expected to feel after Shane Victorino's ground ball was gobbled up by Robinson Cano.

If the dream season of 2008 had not occurred, my column and blog would be appropriately titled right now, but it has only been 53 weeks since I stood in section 428 and watched the Phillies celebrate the first Philadelphia championship in my lifetime.Even after losing to the Yankees, I am confident the Phillies will be back for more next season, and that it won't be too long before we are standing along Broad Street for another championship parade. I won't say it will happen in 2010, but it won't be another 25-year wait.

My second thought was that while these Phillies had many of the same players from last year, they were not nearly as good as the 2008 Phillies.

Baseball, like all sports, is a game of inches, and this year, those inches went against the Phillies.

Last year, Jayson Werth's blooper fell between Tampa Bay second baseman Akinori Iwamura's body and glove, allowing Geoff Jenkins to score in the sixth inning of game 5, part II.This year, a few inches allowed Alex Rodriguez to circle the bases in game 3 of the World Series, causing Cole Hamels to mentally shut down. In game 4, if Brad Lidge's slider was an inch lower, Johnny Damon strikes out in the ninth inning, instead of sparking a game-winning rally. And if Shane Victorino catches Derek Jeter's line drive in the third inning of game 6, Pedro gets out of trouble, instead of putting the Phillies in a deep hole.

That was the story of these Phillies.

Last year, the inches went our way because all 25 players had heart and were determined to win it all. This year, it seemed like Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz and Cliff Lee were the only players who showed up for the World Series, and it was evident in each of the four losses to the Yankees.

While you could argue that each of those plays was a freak occurrence that just went the wrong way for the Phillies, I believe that when you are the more talented team, you make your own luck. However, this series showed that these Phillies were not the more talented team. They certainly weren’t as determined as last year’s world champions.

In the 2009 World Series, the Yankees seemed to use pretty much every player on their 25-man roster, and for the most part, they came through.For the Phillies, it was the opposite.Last year's team had 25 guys who could all be counted on to make a positive contribution to the title run, with the possible exception of So Taguchi. This year, the Phillies roster was made up of the same top players, but quite a few useless bodies at the bottom of that list.

For the life of me, I can't figure out what was the purpose of having Brett Myers, J.A. Happ, Paul Bako, Eric Bruntlett, and Greg Dobbs on the roster. Throw in the ineffectiveness of Pedro Feliz, Matt Stairs and Ben Francisco, and you have one-third of the roster with either no role or no ability to contribute.

If Charlie Manuel didn't have faith in Myers out of the bullpen, either because of injury or general dislike for him, then why have him on the roster?

If Matt Stairs was going to be the lefty off the bench regardless of the situation, why have Dobbs sitting there?

While it was obvious that Bruntlett and Bako had no chance of seeing the field, Happ could have been a solid contributor. Instead of remembering that he was the Phillies' best starting pitcher for about three months this season, the Phillies tried to turn him into J.C. Romero's injury replacement, which everyone could see was a disaster waiting to happen, and resulted in a 5.68 ERA for a guy who had a 2.99 ERA as a starter during the season.

For guys like Feliz and Stairs, they wouldn't recognize the guys who played key roles in last year's title run, and while Jenkins doubled off the wall in last year's clincher, Francisco went 0-for-3, with two strikeouts, to help bring about the Yankees' celebration.

Despite the loss, life goes on, and the days that have since past have been pretty nice. (I even got to put the top down on my car a few times.)

And anyway, the Eagles and Flyers have some talented young players, right?

***

Like the "On the Edge" blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will talk about the Eagles' cross-country trip to San Diego, along with some Flyers and Sixers talk.

Eagles take control of the NFC East ... for now

2009-11-04T13:28:00.000-05:00

Well one Philadelphia team handled its business on Sunday, Nov. 1, but sadly it wasn’t the Phillies.

Because Cliff Lee and Chase Utley managed to send the World Series back to New York with an 8-6 win over the Yankees in game 5 on Monday, this column will focus on the first place Philadelphia Eagles, and their 40-17 pounding of the Giants.

Coming into this game, each team needed to come away with a victory to show that they were for real, as both had suffered bad losses at the hands of the New Orleans Saints, and most of their wins were against the NFL’s version of Division II football teams.

Three hours later, the Eagles had shown they were for real, despite a lifeless loss to the Oakland Raiders two weeks earlier, and the Giants were left scratching their heads as they stumbled to a third loss in a row.

The Eagles, despite playing without Brian Westbrook, looked like the explosive offense that we all envisioned before the season. Donovan McNabb tossed three touchdown passes, and behind a healthy (finally!) offensive line, had enough time to draw up new plays while waiting for his receivers to get open.

While DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Brent Celek are doing a great job of getting open for Donovan McNabb, the offensive line is finally starting to gel, which will be the single most important factor in the Eagles’ success this year.

Now that Todd Herremans and Stacy Andrews have gotten healthy on the offensive line, McNabb will be able to go through his progressions and find the open man among all of the weapons at his disposal.

For this reason, the Eagles’ terrible loss to the Raiders can be forgotten, because they were playing with three backups on the line, and McNabb was running for his life. Now, completely healthy, McNabb had plenty of time to pass, despite squaring off against the talented defensive line of the Giants.The offensive line even managed to open up big holes in the running game, as Leonard Weaver and LeSean McCoy scampered for touchdown runs of 41 and 66 yards, respectively.

As the Eagles ride a two-game winning streak into a showdown with the Dallas Cowboys, the Giants are headed in the wrong direction, having lost three in a row since starting the season with five consecutive victories. The schedule won’t provide the Giants with any breaks, as their next three games are against San Diego, Atlanta and Denver, who have combined for a 14-7 record.

The Giants’ problems this season are completely related to turnovers. The defense isn’t causing them, and the offense is giving up too many.On defense, the Giants forced six turnovers in their games against Dallas and Oakland, but in the other seven games, they have managed just nine turnovers in their other six games.

By not forcing more turnovers, and giving up big plays, including three plays of more than 40 yards against the Eagles, the Giants are forcing Eli Manning to lead the offense on longer drives, instead of just managing the game.

With more pressure on Eli’s shoulders, he has reverted back into the turnover machine from early in his career. He started the season with 10 touchdown passes and only two interceptions in his first five games. However, in his last three games, he has tossed just three touchdowns, but threw six interceptions, giving him eight on the season in eight games, and now 82 throws to the wrong team in 81 career games.

He has also completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the last three games, so I don’t know whether teams have figured out how to stop his wide receivers or if he is reverting back to his former self. Whatever the problem is, he needs to correct it because the Giants could be 6-5 or worse at the end of November if he continues playing this way.

As the Giants search for answers, the Eagles are tied for first place right now, but they need to continue this strong play on Sunday, when the Cowboys come to town, or else they could find themselves in third place on Monday morning, with a new set of questions to answer.

Prediction: Eagles win with a late touchdown, 27-20, and improve to 3-0 in the NFC East.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will recap the World Series, and preview the Eagles’ Sunday night battle with the Cowboys.

Fightins ready to fight back in game 5

2009-11-02T19:31:00.004-05:00

I know that the situation is dire after game four, but the Phillies path to a repeat title is not as bad as it seems.
If Cliff Lee can pull out a victory tonight over A.J. Burnett, who is starting on short rest, then Pedro Martinez would head back to the mound in the Bronx to face Andy Pettitte, who would also be on short rest.
So far in the playoffs, Lee has given up just two earned runs in 33 1/3 innings, so a victory tonight would not be unexpected. On the other hand, Burnett is 4-0 in four starts on three days rest in his career. However, while Burnett pitched lights out baseball in game 2, he is the same pitcher who walked more than four batters per nine innings during the season, and had struggled in the playoffs before the World Series.
After tonight, the Phillies would send Pedro to the hill, and he pitched better in game 2 than Pettitte did in game 3 on full rest.
In game 7, the Phillies could send Hamels to the mound, or they could go with an "All Star game" pitching setup, and send guys like J.A. Happ, Lee, Chad Durbin, Chan Ho Park, Brett Myers, Scott Eyre and Ryan Madson out there for an inning or two at a time against Sabathia, who would be starting his third game in nine days. With some planning, the Phillies could send a fresh pitcher to the mound to face Johnny Damon, Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez each time that part of the lineup was due up.
Remember, tonight is why the Phillies traded for Lee, and Wednesday would be the night that Pedro was destined to pitch when he signed with the Phillies.
I know that the bats have been struggling, but there is still time to step up, especially for Ryan Howard and Raul Ibanez, who have struggled against lefties all series, but now get to face a hard-throwing right hander.
The odds are against the Phillies, as only six teams have ever come back from a 3-1 deficit in World Series history, but Lee can get the ball rolling tonight.
One game at a time, the Phillies can still win the 2009 World Series.
Prediction: Phillies win 5-2 and send this series back to the Bronx.

Fightin' Phils vs. the Evil Empire

2009-10-28T12:29:00.001-04:00

If you listen to the national media, you might not know it, but our Philadelphia Phillies are the defending World Series champions, and despite what you may have heard, the New York Yankees have not dethroned our Fightins.

And they won’t dethrone our Fightins.

If this were 1999, I would be worried about the Phillies having to face the Yankees in the World Series. Those Yankees had won two of the last three World Series titles, and seemingly could pull October victories out of thin air.

Luckily for us, it is 2009, not 1999.

There isn’t a “Yankee mystique” for the Phillies to worry about.Our Phillies won’t have to play at “The House That Ruth Built,” which was the home of 26 World Series champions. They will play games 1 and 2 at “The House That Steinbrenner Bought,” which is home to none of that storied history in the Fall Classic.

In fact, right now, the Phillies are the team with postseason mystique on its side.Nineteen Phillies know how it feels to be called “World Champions of Baseball,” while just five Yankees have won World Series rings, and four of those—Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada—are holdovers from New York’s success in the late 90s. The rest of the Bronx Bombers, such as Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, and Hideki Matsui, have only known failure in the postseason.While there is no mystique about these Yankees, they are a good team.However, they aren’t the best team in the World Series this year.

We know that both of these squads can hit, as the Phils and the Bombers each led their league in runs scored during the regular season, so this series will come down to pitching, which is where Philadelphia has an edge, despite what everyone else tells you.

Yes, Rivera is the best closer in baseball history, but he can be beaten. While he has the most saves in postseason history (Fun fact: Brad Lidge is second), and sports a miniscule 0.77 career ERA this time of year, he also has a few of the biggest blown saves in postseason history.If you think the Phillies’ hitters don’t stand a chance against Rivera, I will kindly ask you to check out how the Yankees’ seasons ended in 2001 and 2004. After that little history lesson, go ask Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton about how tough the ninth innings are when trying to close out the Fightins.

I won’t try to fool myself into thinking that Lidge is better than Rivera at closer, but for the first eight innings, the Phillies hurlers have the upper-hand.

Everywhere you turn, someone on television will tell you about how great Sabathia has been for the Yankees, but do you know who has been better? Cliff Lee.

While Sabathia has struggled against the Phillies in his last three starts, giving up 12 runs in 17 2/3 innings (6.11 ERA), you know who is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA over the last two seasons against the Yankees? Cliff Lee.

Do you know who has a better ERA, more complete games and more shutouts than Sabathia this season? You guessed it; it’s Lee.

As for the rest of the starting rotations, I would take Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton over A.J. Burnett and Pettitte, especially once the Yankees’ trio begins pitching on short rest because they don’t have a fourth starter.

While Sabathia has been a workhorse, both Burnett and Pettitte have trouble going deep into games, averaging just over six innings per start, while allowing too many baserunners. The pair comes into the postseason with WHIPs of 1.40 and 1.38, respectively, with Burnett allowing 4.22 walks per nine innings, and Pettitte surrendering 3.53 BB/9.

From the National League dugout, none of the Phillies’ starters allow free passes at nearly this rate, which should concern Yankees manager Joe Girardi.

This means that the Phils need to continue their patience at the plate, and as long as they don’t go into a prolonged slump with runners in scoring position, neither pitcher should give the Phillies’ hitters a problem.

Moving to the bullpen, while J.A. Happ, Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin all could pitch more than one inning regardless of the batters due up, the Yankees middle relief is completely a mix-and-match unit. Phil Coke and Damaso Marte have each pitched in four games and logged just 1 1/3 innings pitched this postseason. Joba Chamberlain, despite all of the hype, has recorded just eight outs in six appearances out of the bullpen.

At this point, Girardi only has four pitchers that he trusts to send to the mound, and other than Rivera, none are worthy of being feared.

After all of this analysis, I can find plenty of reasons for the Phillies to repeat, and if I wanted to, I could use the same set of statistics to show why the Yankees could win their 27th World Series title.

At this point, the Phillies need to keep playing like champions, while getting contributions from the entire lineup. Do that and they should win.

Regardless of all the hype, this year’s World Series promises to be much more competitive than last year’s, and hopefully we will be attending a parade late next week.

Prediction: This series will go six games, but “New York, New York” won’t be the Frank Sinatra tune playing after the final out.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the first two World Series games, and preview the NFL’s version of the Philadelphia/New York rivalry.

Eagles unravel against the Raiders

2009-10-21T11:13:00.001-04:00

Trap game.

When the Eagles finished bumbling around in the Black Hole of the Raider nation, it provided credence to the term “trap game,” because there was no reason that this Eagles team should ever lose to a team led by JaMarcus Russell.

However, after watching that debacle, I am scratching my head about how much trouble the Birds might be in for because the Raiders basically just drew up the blueprints for how to beat the Eagles.I know that the Eagles’ defense only gave up 13 points, but that is because Russell is the worst quarterback in the NFL, not because they actually played well.

At this point, it is pretty much a certainty that the Eagles will allow the opposing tight end to have a career day, and Raiders tight end Zach Miller was no exception. Miller caught six passes for 139 yards and a touchdown, which accounted for more than 62 percent of Russell’s passing yards for the game. That comes a week after Kellen Winslow caught nine passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ 33-14 victory over Tampa Bay.

When tight ends are shredding your defense, it means you have problems at linebacker, which is something I have been complaining about since February!However, the linebackers didn’t merely turn in an epic failure trying to cover Miller, it looked like they had never witnessed a play-action pass before.

How many times could the Raiders fake a handoff to the left, only to roll back to the right and pass to the fullback in the flat? Apparently, it was at least five times because Raiders fullback Gary Russell caught five passes for 55 yards, including a 13-yard reception on 3rd-and-10 with less than two minutes remaining to essentially end the game. On that type of play, at least one player needs to stay at home, instead of chasing the potential running play to the left side.

After watching the linebackers provide almost nothing in terms of big plays last year, I assumed that they could at least be in the vicinity of a pass-catcher, but after watching this game, I don’t even think that is possible, especially with Jeremiah Trotter and his 75-year-old legs slowly grazing around the field.

While I’m ripping on the defense, I have to ask a rhetorical question: “Why is Asante Samuel in the NFL if he is afraid of contact?”

If you watch highlights from this season, you will see that Samuel has four interceptions, but only 14 tackles. That is because his tackling technique is to merely fall down and then pray that his shoulder hits the lower leg of the ball-carrier. You will also notice that every time this technique fails, he stays down for a few seconds to make it seem like he really tried to come up with the tackle, but injury prevented him from making the stop.

I haven’t seen a player more afraid of contact since Deion Sanders and his patented “slap fight” tackling technique. If I were an offensive coordinator, I would call running plays that went directly at Samuel until he was taken off the field, and then I would throw the ball at his replacement, Ellis Hobbs, and the Eagles’ defense would be burnt like toast.

Switching to the other side of the ball, the supposed depth on the offensive line, which the Eagles bragged about during preseason, was proven to be a complete sham this week.

When Jason Peters left in the first quarter because of a knee injury, the Eagles surrounded center Jamaal Jackson with four backups. As a result, Donovan McNabb spent the rest of the afternoon running for his life, while making errant throws that most likely were dropped if they actually managed to reach the receiver.

Using King Dunlap, Nick Cole (who I am still very high on), Max Jean-Gilles and Winston Justice on the offensive line, McNabb was hurried 18 times, hit 15 times, and sacked six times by a Raiders defensive that managed just nine sacks in its first five games.

I don’t know how the Eagles can fix this mess in the trenches, but it looks as if Peters will be healthy enough to play left tackle on Monday night, and hopefully Todd Herremans will return from injury as well. The real mystery is why Jean-Gilles is playing in place of Stacy Andrews. It would be nice to see Andrews get healthy and bring some stability to the right side of the offensive line.

Now if only someone in the front office would pick up the phone to bring back Jon Runyan, because I can’t imagine what New York’s front seven will do to this pathetic group of linemen in two weeks.

Prediction for the Eagles’ Monday night game with the Washington Redskins: Eagles win 16-12, in a typical Eagles/Redskins ugly battle.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the Eagles’ first divisional game against the Redskins, and hopefully be rejoicing about the Phillies making a repeat appearance in the World Series.

Lidge slams the door on Colorado; Phils head to L.A.

2009-10-15T10:44:00.002-04:00

“Don’t change horses in the middle of a race.”

“Dance with the one you came with.”

No matter what cliché you want to use, Phillies Manager Charlie Manuel probably has heard it before during his four decades of baseball experience, and in the National League Division Series, he looked like a genius by following those simple clichés about loyalty.

Heading into the playoffs, nobody, probably including Manuel, knew how the Phillies’ bullpen would perform against the Colorado Rockies, let alone who would be getting the call each time he made a pitching change.

Apparently, the one thing he was certain about was that if the situation presented itself, the Phillies’ playoff hopes would be placed in the shaky hands of Brad Lidge.

Throughout the season, Manuel kept telling everyone who would listen that Lidge was his closer and the coaching staff would work with the reliever until he regained his form from 2008.

He wasn’t joking.

Despite blowing a Major League worst 11 saves, Lidge was handed the ball in the ninth inning of both the third and fourth games of the NLDS, and he rewarded Manuel’s loyalty with two saves and a trip to Los Angeles for a date with the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

Two years ago, I remember writing about how the 2007 Phillies battled back to win the division, much like the Cleveland Indians from “Major League.” In the NLDS, it was time for the sequel, “Major League 2,” as Lidge played the role of Rick “Wild Thing” Vaughn, struggling all season to recapture his success from the previous year, but coming through in the playoffs.

The biggest problem for Lidge this season was his inability to throw strikes, but in Colorado, his slider was finally breaking at the right time, and his fastball wasn’t tailing away.

I don’t know if he is finally healthy, or has figured out how to pitch successfully despite his injured knee. While Lidge continues on the path of returning to 2008 form, the rest of the bullpen remains a mystery.

Luckily for Manuel, Cliff Lee tossed a complete game in the series opener, but in game two, it was clear that Manuel didn’t really trust anyone in his bullpen, or else starting pitchers Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ would not have been called in for middle relief duty.

It appeared that Manuel may have trusted Ryan Madson, or at least considered him the lesser of all evils. Madson rewarded Manuel’s faith by giving up leads in both games three and four, proving, yet again, that while he may be the most talented pitcher on the staff, he crumbles when put in a pressure situation.

Madson blew six save opportunities during the regular season because he will look sharp, but then inexplicably miss his spots at the worst possible time, just like he did on Sunday and Monday. (For proof, check out highlights from his blown save against Baltimore back in June. Carlos Ruiz wanted the pitch low and inside against Brian Roberts, but Madson left the ball right over the plate, about belt-high, and it was next seen entering the stands in right field. The same thing happened earlier that week when former Phillie Rod Barajas crushed a ninth-inning homer to centerfield.)

With Madson struggling, and with Brett Myers’ health and effectiveness still an uncertainty, the Phillies will have to get through the late innings by using only Scott Eyre, Antonio Bastardo, and Lidge, along with the inconsistent Chad Durbin as a situational righty. In the middle innings, keep expecting to see Joe Blanton and J.A. Happ, because Manuel doesn’t have enough other options to get the ball to the suddenly stable Lidge.

***

Quick thoughts from the division series round:

* No wonder the national media thinks the National League is inferior to the American League. Vicente Padilla and John Smoltz both were released by American League teams this season, but wound up throwing a combined nine innings in the deciding game of the Cardinals/Dodgers series. In fact, Padilla threw seven scoreless innings for the Dodgers, just two months after the Texas Rangers, who were starved for pitching while fighting for a Wild Card spot, sent him packing.

* How great will it be to watch the NLCS without having to listen to Fox announcer Joe Buck gushing about how awesome Manny Ramirez is? It was torture last year to hear Buck say how the Dodgers would battle back every time the Phillies scored.

* What has gotten into C.C. Sabathia and Alex Rodriguez? These two serial October choke-artists must have turned back their mental calendars to May, because both Yankees shined against the Twins. Sabathia entered this year’s playoffs 2-3, with a 6.25 ERA in postseason play, but gave up just one earned run in 6 2/3 innings against the Twins. Rodriguez, whose playoff struggles have been well chronicled, seems to be on his way to erasing his October demons, hitting .455 with two homers in three games against the Twins.

Prediction: Phillies in 6, setting up a battle with the Yankees, although I would prefer to face the Angels.

Phillies playoff preview!

2009-10-07T10:22:00.001-04:00

I know that if I really analyze the Phillies’ statistics this year, there would be a lot to be concerned about heading into the National League Division Series battle with the Colorado Rockies.

However, I am going to look on the bright side, and remember that the Phillies are the defending World Series champions, and haven’t let me down in exactly two years - coincidentally against the Colorado Rockies in the National League Division Series.

Yes, I could choose to look at the fact that Brad Lidge has blown 11 saves this year. Also, the fact that Ryan Madson has blown six saves while filling in for Lidge does not inspire confidence. In contrast, Huston Street has saved 35 games for the Rockies, blowing just two save opportunities all season. Before even getting to Lidge or Madson, the Phillies will be without J.C. Romero, who was dominant last season in the playoffs, and would be the first man to come through the bullpen door if a tough lefty were at the plate. Brett Myers and Chan Ho Park, two pitchers who were penciled in to be key bullpen components, are also injured.

Looking at the starting pitching, I could point to Cliff Lee’s 5.59 ERA in September, or the 10 runs that Joe Blanton has given up in his last two starts, if I really wanted to dwell on the negatives.

Wow, people could really drive themselves crazy thinking about all of the things that could go wrong and all of the reasons that the Rockies will quickly bounce the Phillies from the playoffs for the second time in three seasons. But, instead of thinking about all of the bad things, remember that the Phillies are the defending the World Series champions. Everyone except Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee know exactly what it takes to get to the World Series, and more importantly, win the whole thing.

With that, here are some thoughts and statistics that should inspire confidence heading into the NLDS:

* Cole Hamels loves pitching in big games, as we saw last year, when he went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts. He also has surrendered just two home runs in his last eight starts, which shows that he is keeping the ball down in the zone. In his previous nine starts, Hamels struggled with his control, and surrendered 11 home runs in the process.

* J.A. Happ has been successful in both the bullpen and the rotation, so no matter where he ends up, expect good things from the potential National League Rookie of the Year. Out of the bullpen, Happ went 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA, and as a starter, he was 10-4 with a 2.99 ERA, so whichever role Charlie Manuel chooses for Happ, it should be considered a point of strength.

* The Rockies’ bats are worse against left-handed pitchers compared to when they face righties. The Phillies could potentially send Hamels, Lee and Happ to the hill in the first three games, and watch the Rockies struggle to get on base. The Rockies line (batting average/slugging percent/OPS) against righties is .264/.445/.791, but against lefties, it is .253/.430/.765.

* In six head-to-head games this season, the Phillies’ bats greatly outperformed the Rockies’ bats, hitting .302, compared to Colorado hitting just .251 against the Phillies pitchers. In those six games, Chase Utley hit .421, Jayson Werth hit .391, and every Phillies starter hit at least .286, except for Ryan Howard, who hit .250. In comparison, most of the Rockies’ big names struggled, with Todd Helton and Clint Barmes each hitting .190, while Troy Tulowitzki hit just .200 in the six games.

Overall, I know that there is a lot to be concerned about, but these are the defending World Series Champions, and when they are firing on all cylinders, nobody can beat them, and as we have seen throughout this season, even when guys are struggling, they still were winning games.

Bold predictions:

* Hamels and Lee each pitch at least seven innings games 1 and 2.

* Pedro Martinez will validate my midseason prediction that he will be dominant out of the bullpen.

* Antonio Bastardo will be this year’s version of K-Rod from the 2002 World Series champion Anaheim Angels.

* No goalie controversy for the Flyers this year! (Sorry, I love hockey!)

* Phillies in four, setting up a showdown with the St. Louis Cardinals.

***

Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the Eagles’ matchup with the Buccaneers, and talk about where the Phillies stand after two playoff games.

Eagles are in fine shape at the bye

2009-09-30T12:52:00.000-04:00

Heading into the bye week, the Eagles have been a Webster’s-worthy definition of the phrase “up and down,” both in terms of health and the play on the field. Despite the inconsistency, I really like where the Eagles stand after three weeks of play.

Before the season, if someone said that after three games, Donovan McNabb would have thrown for 79 yards, Brian Westbrook would not be leading the team in rushing, and the defense would have given up 48 points in one of the games, I would have guessed the Eagles were staring at an 0-3 record.

Yet, after forcing seven turnovers against the Carolina Panthers, and then seeing our backups demolish and demoralize the Kansas City Chiefs, the Eagles are sitting at 2-1, with the prospects of being 5-1 heading into their battle with the New York Giants on Nov. 1.

And as the Eagles take a week off, let’s have another edition of the good, the bad, and the undecided!

The Good: DeSean Jackson, Brent Celek and LeSean McCoy.

This is probably the most talented trio of young players the Eagles have ever had on offense in my lifetime. As we have seen in each of the first three games, Jackson is a threat to find to the end zone whenever and wherever he gets the ball in his hands. In his first three games, he has touchdowns of 85, 71 and 64 yards, and has posted consecutive 100-yard receiving games, placing him in the top 10 in receiving yards.

As good as Jackson has been at wide receiver, Celek has been just as good at tight end, ranking third in the NFL in catches, and tenth in receiving yards this season. I would like to compare him to former Eagle Chad Lewis, because Celek plays with just as much heart as Lewis did, but Celek is far more talented. Celek never drops the ball, shows no fear going over the middle, and rarely gets tackled by one defender. At this point, Celek is on pace to catch 117 passes for more than 1,300 yards this season.

The third man in this trio might be the most talented of the bunch, as McCoy has shown that he has all of the tools to be Westbrook’s replacement after 2010. In the meantime, he can fill in as necessary, and the offense won’t miss a beat, which we saw on Sunday, when he had 93 total yards and a touchdown.McCoy leads the Eagles in rushing yards, has caught six balls out of the backfield, and can flawlessly take snaps in the Wildcat offense. His ability to spell Westbrook for 10 to 15 plays per game for the rest of the year could be one of the major keys to the Eagles playing football in January and, hopefully February.

The Bad: Ellis Hobbs and Asante Samuel

Despite missing McNabb and Westbrook, the offense has looked quite good, but the defensive secondary and the special teams have been suspect all season, with the exception of Jackson’s punt returns. Much of that blame can fall on Hobbs, who has done nothing with the two jobs handed to him during the preseason. Hobbs has been less than explosive when returning kickoffs, including coughing up the ball, putting New Orleans in great position to blow open the game in week two, instead of giving the Eagles a chance to drive and take the lead. He’s also been picked on defensively, as we saw against the Chiefs, who couldn’t throw at all, yet found Hobbs to pick on in the red zone. I would not be surprised to see Quintin Demps get his job back as a return man, and Joselio Hanson reclaim his role as the nickel cornerback.

While Hobbs has been bad in the limited time he has seen the field, Samuel has done almost nothing this year, except repeatedly get burned by Marques Colston. I know that Samuel is a slow starter, but this is ridiculous. I have seen Samuel make one good play all season, and that came against the Panthers, when all of the Eagles were catching passes from Jake Delhomme. He needs to quickly regain the form he showed late last season, when teams wouldn’t even throw in his direction because of how well he was blanketing receivers.

The (still) Undecided: Michael Vick

Vick showed a lot of rust against the Chiefs, but I am guessing that the Eagles merely wanted him on the field for some live action, which is why he had just one carry and two pass attempts. What Andy Reid showed us on Sunday was that he is willing to play Vick at any point in the game, and on any down and distance. Because the Chiefs are such a bad team, there was no reason for Reid to unveil some of the more creative Wildcat plays, but I would expect to see them in key games later this season.

After the bye week, the Eagles have a three-game stretch of Tampa Bay, Oakland and Washington. That means the Eagles should have a four game winning streak heading into the game against the Giants, because those three teams have combined to score just 117 points in nine total games, for an average of just 13 points per game. This trio of teams rank 28 through 30 in points scored, with only the even lowlier Browns and Rams scoring fewer points after three weeks.

I assume McNabb and Westbrook will be healthy for at least the first of these three games, and it would be nice for them to be healthy for the rest of the season, but I would bet that the Eagles are 5-1 after the Redskins’ game, regardless of who plays on offense for the Birds.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the ups and downs of the Eagles, and talk about the mystery that is the Phillies’ pitching staff as the calendar turns to October.

Kolb, McDermott show their inexperience in blowout loss

2009-09-24T13:29:00.001-04:00

What a difference a week makes!

A week ago, I was praising the Eagles’ defense for the hurtin’ it put on the Carolina Panthers, yet this week, those same guys were blown out by Drew Brees.

A week ago, I wrote that Kevin Kolb was a terrible quarterback who wouldn’t be able to lead the Eagles to victory in a shootout with New Orleans.Well, the defense looked awful, Kolb wasn’t that bad, but unfortunately, I was right about the Eagles not being able to keep up with the high-powered Saints’ offense.

This week’s breakdown of the Eagles’ 48-22 loss to the Saints starts at quarterback.Kevin Kolb looked much better than the guy who tossed zero touchdowns and four interceptions in his first 47 NFL passes. He actually looked like a serviceable backup for a team that boasts 12 Pro Bowl selections from its other three quarterbacks.

In his first career start, Kolb threw for 391 yards and two touchdowns against the Saints, but also tossed three interceptions.While the yards and touchdowns look impressive, Kolb racked up those gaudy numbers against a Saints defense that dropped into a “prevent defense” for nearly the entire second half.

Yes, Kolb throws a very nice ball when given plenty of time, which gave us a glimmer of hope in the first quarter when DeSean Jackson found an acre of open space at Lincoln Financial Field, and tied the game at 7-7.

The problem with Kolb is that his abilities are similar to those of A.J. Feeley. Feeley is an excellent backup quarterback, but when he is forced to start, he is lulled to sleep by an easily beatable prevent defense, but then is quickly fooled by the blitz or a disguised coverage at a critical juncture.

Think back to the game against the Patriots in 2007 when Feeley almost derailed New England’s undefeated season. Filling in for Donovan McNabb, he threw for 345 yards, mostly against a defense that allowed him to throw underneath the entire game, but he also tossed three interceptions.

Their performances were so similar that the first interception of the game for both Kolb and Feeley came on a short, timing route to the right side. Asante Samuel (playing for the Patriots at the time) and Scott Shanle (of the Saints) both lured the quarterback into making a bad throw to a completely covered wide receiver. If you put them on a split screen, it would be the exact same play, except for Samuel taking it in for six points.

The comparisons don’t stop there. Think back to Feeley’s next game, when Westbrook took a late fourth quarter punt for 64 yards, and then Feeley found his favorite receiver, Seattle’s linebacker Lofa Tatupu, for his third interception of the game.

That pass was the exact pass that Kolb threw to Darren Sharper at the goal line, which was returned 97 yards for a touchdown. It’s also the same pass that Kolb threw to the Ravens’ Ed Reed last year, which was returned 107 yards for a touchdown. All three defenders fooled a backup quarterback into thinking they were leaning the other direction, and then picked off what both Feeley and Kolb thought were easy touchdown passes.

Kolb, like any NFL quarterback, can throw a spiral and hit a wide-open receiver, but he still hasn’t shown that he can make quick, intelligent decisions with the football.

Speaking of making quick, intelligent decisions, the Eagles’ secondary did not make a single one of them against the Saints.

Eagles’ cornerbacks Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown apparently forgot that when covering a wide receiver, they should probably be somewhere near that player!I don’t understand what happened to the Eagles’ defense from Sunday to Sunday, but they left their talent in Carolina. The Eagles couldn’t stop the run, couldn’t stop the pass, and got nowhere near Brees.

After holding the talented duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart to just 2.9 yards per carry last week, Reggie Bush and Mike Bell pounded the rock for 119 yards on 27 carries.This game showed that while McDermott can dial up the pressure when his opponents are back on their heels due to turnovers and poor execution, he doesn’t have an answer for potent offense that rarely makes mistakes.

I hate to bring up Jim Johnson, but it was almost as if McDermott was determined not to let Brees pick apart a defense that was constantly blitzing the quarterback, much the same way that Kurt Warner picked apart the Eagles in the NFC Championship game in January.

In that game, Johnson was constantly trying to pressure Warner into making mistakes, but it backfired as he threw for 279 yards and four touchdowns. McDermott watched that game from the sidelines, and decided that he was going to do the exact opposite, because while the Eagles got to Brees twice, they rarely forced him to make a quick decision.

Overall, I’m not too mad because this was one of the games that I pegged as a loss before the season started. Instead of being angry that McNabb didn’t out-duel Brees, I’ll just chalk it up as a learning experience for two youngsters who need to step up their games if they want to make an impact in the NFL.

Defense shines as QB situation clouds up

2009-09-16T12:18:00.001-04:00

And the season is off to a flying start!

I am usually so pumped for the first week of the NFL season that it doesn’t really matter how the Eagles do, just that they are on the field for a meaningful game.

However, in the 2009 season opener, the Eagles’ defense provided fireworks, while Donovan McNabb scared an entire fan base.

The Eagles’ 38-10 victory over the defending NFC South champion Carolina Panthers would have immediately cemented the Super Bowl talk coming from national media outlets during the preseason, if not for one cracked rib on their star quarterback.

Since the Phillies won the World Series last year, I have tried to be more positive about Philadelphia sports, and take less of a gloom-and-doom approach, so I will start with a breakdown of the 35-point fantasy football effort by the Eagles’ defense before I rip Kevin Kolb apart.

Sean McDermott, the Eagles’ new defensive coordinator, came up with a brilliant scheme to shut down the run-heavy Panthers.Before even delving into the seven turnovers or five sacks, the job that the front seven did on DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart was simply spectacular.

Last season, the Panthers’ duo combined to rush for 2,351 yards, and averaged 5.1 yards per carry. McDermott’s boys limited “Smash and Dash” to just 72 yards on 25 carries, for an average of 2.9 yards per carry.

With the running game thoroughly contained, the defense was able to fly around Bank of America Stadium, picking off passes and slamming Carolina QB Jake Delhomme and his two replacements to the turf.

As predicted in this space six weeks ago, McDermott took Jim Johnson’s foundation and combined it with 10 years worth of schemes that he was dying to try out, and it resulted in the Eagles forcing seven turnovers, registering five sacks, and bruising three quarterbacks’ egos.

The most impressive part of those stats is that those five sacks came against the exact same Panthers offensive line that allowed just 20 sacks in all of 2008.

In this game, Trent Cole, who usually gets double-teamed on passing downs, rushed the quarterback from an upright “Joker” position, instead of off the edge from a three-point stance. On several obvious passing downs, McDermott used Sheldon Brown, who picked off two passes to start his season-long quest for a new contract, as a safety, moving Macho Harris back to the cornerback position, which he played at Virginia Tech.

We all expected the defensive line and the secondary to play well because those units are filled with Pro Bowl caliber players, but the biggest surprise came from the linebackers. Last year, the linebackers came up with 9.5 big plays (5.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 1 interception) but against Carolina, they provided more than one-third of that production.

In a stark change from last year, Akeem Jordan came up with a sack and an interception, while Omar Gaither provided half a sack and a fumble recovery. The lone downside to last Sunday’s performance was that Chris Gocong picked up right where he left off last year, providing almost nothing from the strongside linebacker position.

Switching to offense, it was tough to get a read on the revamped unit because they never needed to put together a long, sustained drive, but in the brief time they were on the field, the offensive line looked very solid. Other than the false start penalties, the line, which was playing with two reserves, provided holes for Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy and Leonard Weaver to rush for 5.3 yards per attempt on 23 carries.

Now for the biggest story of the game—another Donovan McNabb injury. Regardless of how the NFL ruled, a blatant late hit cracked the ribs of McNabb, forcing Kolb into action. And I am using the term “action” loosely, because Kolb’s performance did not resemble that of an NFL quarterback.

Kolb, who came into this season having thrown an interception every nine passes in his career, was 7-for-11 for 23 yards, fumbled twice and threw two passes that were dropped by the Panthers’ secondary.I’m not buying the excuse that he doesn’t get repetitions with the first team because it is week 1, which means he got plenty of reps all summer, so he should be up to game speed.

The problem with Kolb is that he doesn’t play at NFL speed, and doesn’t realize that he can’t force the ball to the first option if that player is double-covered.

Kolb needs to learn how to go through his progressions while watching out for the blitz, but that is something that can’t be taught, which means Kolb is not now, nor ever will be a quality NFL quarterback. If the Eagles are going to keep throwing him out there, he should at least be trained to hold the ball with two hands when he feels the pressure coming, and possibly even to run from that pressure, instead of spinning in a circle and falling down, like we saw several times in the preseason.

Then, after about 24 hours of expressing confidence in the former second round pick, Andy Reid went out and signed Jeff Garcia. Yes, the same Garcia who went 5-1 with the Eagles in 2006, leading them to a division title.

If Kolb is under center, chalk this one up as a loss, because even a solid performance by the defense would mean holding the Saints in the 20s, but Kolb doesn’t have the talent to get the Eagles’ offense on the board before garbage time, let alone win a shootout. His performance also may determine his future with the Eagles, because someone will be cut once Michael Vick is eligible to play.

If Garcia gets the start, the Eagles aren’t in bad shape, but because of his weak arm, his style of play really doesn’t mesh with the current roster of speedy wide receivers, so the offense would have to change its style.

Personally, I think McNabb throws on a flak jacket, takes a cortisone shot and plays on Sunday. After all, this is the same guy that threw four touchdown passes on a broken ankle in 2002, and then put up MVP numbers through the first half of 2005 while playing with injuries that would have put each of us in the emergency room.

***

Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss how the Eagles match up against the high-powered Saints, and talk about the shocking revival of the ageless Pedro Martinez.

Eagles' title hopes depend on the offense clicking

2009-09-10T14:26:00.003-04:00

After losing in the NFC Championship game for the fourth time in his career, Eagles’ quarterback Donovan McNabb publicly asked for more weapons on offense.

Ask and you shall receive.

When the Eagles step on the field for their season opener against the NFC South Division champion Carolina Panthers, McNabb will be leading the most talented offense in recent Eagles history.

Since that crushing loss to Arizona, the Eagles dumped Tra Thomas, Jon Runyan, Correll Buckhalter and Greg Lewis, while adding younger, faster and more talented players as replacements, much to the excitement of McNabb and the fanbase. While all of these new “weapons” look good on paper, turning them into successful players on the field is another story.

Jason Peters and Stacey Andrews both provide youth and size on the offensive line, but the entire starting five has yet to play a down of football together, and won’t until Todd Herremans returns from injury.

We all saw that Thomas and Runyan were too old and too banged up to be good run blockers, but they were two of the most dependable tackles in the league at keeping their quarterback upright. We know that the line will be better at opening up holes, but it remains to be seen if Peters, Stacey Andrews, and even Shawn Andrews, assuming he decides play and not get his “Michael Phelps on” (YouTube it), are as adept at protecting McNabb.

At running back, the Eagles are hoping Brian Westbrook can rebound from a season that could only be described as a struggle. Westbrook, who turned 30 last week, battled injuries all season, and registered the lowest yards per carry and yards per catch of his career.

The biggest move of the offseason may have been one of the quietest moves, as Leonard Weaver gives the Eagles their first true fullback since Jon Ritchie. In addition to his blocking ability, Weaver caught 59 passes in the last two years and picked up 22 first downs on ground as a short-yardage back.

Rookie running back Shady McCoy has the same skill set as Westbrook, but while he has shown some flashes of talent during the preseason, he is not ready to carry the load fulltime, so unless Westbrook’s burst is back, the Eagles could be more pass happy than ever before.

Luckily, if the Eagles are forced to throw more, they have more talent at wide receiver than I can ever remember. DeSean Jackson tore up the Eagles’ record books as a rookie, and already looks like a legitimate number one receiver.

Pairing with Jackson in the starting lineup is Kevin Curtis, who struggled through several injuries last year, but led the Eagles in 2007 with more than 1,100 receiving yards. In the slot, Jason Avant is an excellent route runner with great hands, and as a fantasy football sleeper, he should improve on his 32 catches from last year, and continue moving the chains on third downs.

As the fourth receiver, rookie Jeremy Maclin will only be used to stretch the field and use his speed on wide receiver screens, and thankfully, we will not see Greg Lewis taking time from any of these receivers.Prediction: The Eagles go 11-5, and win the sixth division title of the Andy Reid era.

Now for the rest of the division:

New York Giants: Last year, the Giants’ season fell apart when Plaxico Burress shot himself in the leg. Eli Manning tossed just three touchdown passes in six games following the shooting, including a 23-11 playoff loss to the Eagles. Add in the losses of 1,000-yard rusher Derrick Ward and Amani Toomer, and Eli’s offense lost 124 catches, 1,418 receiving yards and 1,025 yards rushing, and they hope to fill that void with rookies and underachieving youngsters.

The Giants also showed their lack of confidence in Manning by giving him the world’s largest “prove it” contract. Manning’s $97-million extension may seem gaudy, but the Super Bowl MVP got less guaranteed money than Detroit gave to Matthew Stafford before he even threw a pass in the NFL. If the final six games were an aberration, and Eli is improving as he matures, then he will trigger the incentives in the contract and be one of the highest paid QBs in the league. However, if that stretch showed that he needs a player like Burress to be successful, then the Giants can cut bait quickly and relatively cheaply before starting over.

Prediction: The defense leads the league in points allowed while carrying the Giants to 10 wins.

Dallas Cowboys: This team is always an early season favorite, but for more than a decade, they have also been a huge disappointment in January. A lot of people think the Cowboys will be better off without Terrell Owens, but star wide receivers don’t grow on trees, and the Cowboys don’t have anyone other than Jason Witten to catch passes from Tony Romo.

Roy Williams was brought in midseason last year to complement Owens, and now is expected to be the top dog, but caught just 19 passes in 10 games with the Cowboys last year, and with the exception of 2006, has never been all that good or all that healthy.

Prediction: The Cowboys go 8-8 while, like the Giants, learning what it is like to play without a wide receiver that constantly draws double coverage.

Washington Redskins: I could probably just copy and paste what I wrote last year about the Skins and it would still be true. They are still making more noise in the offseason, than in the regular season, and they are still too young and inexperienced at quarterback and wide receiver to compete in this division.

Prediction: Jason Campbell isn’t the starting quarterback at the end of this six-win season.

Breaking down the Birds' defense

2009-09-02T13:49:00.000-04:00

With less than two weeks remaining until the Eagles’ season opener against the Carolina Panthers, it’s time to break down the Birds’ roster for 2009, and because “defense wins championships,” I’ll start there.

Last year, the Eagles ranked third in the NFL in total yards allowed and fourth in points allowed, however, missing from that unit are Brian Dawkins, Stewart Bradley and coordinator Jim Johnson.

In previous columns, I have explained my thoughts about the loss of Jim Johnson, but from a purely football perspective, Johnson was a teacher, and new defensive coordinator Sean McDermott had been one of his students for nearly a decade. I think McDermott will take the torch and run with it, just like John Harbaugh, Steve Spagnuolo, Ron Rivera and Leslie Frazier did when given the opportunity to move up.

On the field, the biggest loss of the preseason was Stewart Bradley, who tore up his knee. Bradley was expected to be a big contributor, and the new heart of the defense, but I don’t think the loss is that big of a concern because of how little value is placed on linebackers in the Eagles’ defense.

Since 2000, the Eagles’ defense has ranked in the top 10 in points allowed seven times, and five of those times, they ranked fourth or better. The only constant throughout those nine seasons was change at linebacker!

During that run, 17 different linebackers have been declared a starter for the Eagles, including nine different weakside linebackers, five middle linebackers, and three strongside linebackers. In case you are forgetting some of these guys, I’ll throw out memorable names like Levon Kirkland, Barry Gardner, Nate Wayne, Keith “The Bullet” Adams, Matt McCoy, Shawn Barber, and last, and certainly least, Mark “I missed two tackles on one touchdown run in the 2003 NFC Championship game” Simoneau.

With names like that, it is amazing that the defense didn’t stink for the last decade.

Last week, I wrote that the entire linebacker corps totaled just 5.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 interception in 2008, but as bad as those numbers look on their own, it is actually worse when they are compared to the rest of the NFL.

In 2008, ten linebackers registered more sacks, individually, than Bradley, Chris Gocong, Akeem Jordan and Omar Gaither combined. It gets even worse, because 14 linebackers picked off more passes than all four of our linebackers combined.

These names and stats show that it doesn’t really matter who is playing linebacker for the Eagles, so Gaither, Joe Mays, and Matt Wilhelm would all be able fill-ins for Bradley, but as a graduate of the University of Maryland, I’d like to see rookie Moise Fokou get the starting nod.

Moving to the secondary, losing Dawkins hurts in the locker room, but on the field, he was a liability in coverage, which is an essential skill in the NFC East because of the talented tight ends in Dallas, New York and Washington.

Regardless of whether Quintin Demps, Macho Harris or Sean Jones joins Second Team All-Pro Quintin Mikell at safety, the Eagles secondary will be stronger in coverage. Throw in the fact that Asante Samuel is no longer forced to play press coverage, and that Sheldon Brown is playing this season with the hopes that someone will give the Eagles enough incentive to send the unhappy corner packing, and the secondary could be sending three players to the Pro Bowl, like it did in 2004.

In the trenches, the Eagles have been up and down this decade, sending out defensive lines that either couldn’t stop the run or couldn’t get to the quarterback, but this year seems to be a perfect mix.

Defensive tackles Mike Patterson and Brodrick Bunkley are playing better than ever, finding their way into the backfield throughout the preseason. If they can continue their strong play, Trent Cole should see more one-on-one time against offensive tackles, and Chris Clemons, Victor Abiamiri, Jason Babin and Juqua Parker will each have an easier time getting to the quarterback from the left defensive end spot. Throw in Darren Howard (10 sacks in 2008) playing a hybrid position on the line, and this group is deeper than any defensive line in recent memory.

Adding it all up, I don’t know if I would expect the Eagles to be in the top four in yards and points allowed, but a top 10 finish is more than likely. While they may give up more yards this year, I am expecting more big plays out of the secondary because the front four will be wreaking havoc in the backfield, forcing quarterbacks to make plenty of mistakes.

Next week: A look at the Eagles’ offense, and a quick analysis of the rest of the NFC East.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we’ll talk about the decisions made to get the Eagles down to their 53-man roster, along with the latest on the Phillies as they coast into September.

The good, bad and undecided about the Eagles

2009-08-26T12:35:00.002-04:00

I usually do not put a lot of time or effort into watching or analyzing preseason football games, however, this year is a little different. Because of injuries, the Eagles have been sending large waves of backups and rookies onto the field early in the first two exhibitions.
As a result, I have found myself very interested in these meaningless games, and I can say that I have seen some very encouraging things, but also a few terrible things.
The good:
The backfield: With Brian Westbrook slowly making his way back from knee surgery, I have been pleasantly surprised with how well the backfield has performed in his absence. Second round draft pick LeSean McCoy has led the way for the Birds, gaining 59 yards on 15 carries, despite running behind a group of injury replacements. More importantly, he has hauled in five passes, and showed some nifty moves on a 19-yard screen pass.
Free agent acquisition Leonard Weaver looks like he could make a real difference for the Eagles this season, especially in short-yardage situations. He picked up a nice first down on a 3rd-and-1 against the Patriots, and also flashed some of the pass-catching ability that he became known for in Seattle, where he caught 59 passes over the last two seasons.
Assuming Westbrook is healthy, and throwing in the fact that Eldra Buckley may have knocked Lorenzo Booker off the team, this group is talented enough to force the Eagles to run the football this year.
The defensive tackles: I know that if you look at the stat sheet, it will say that Brodrick Bunkley and Mike Patterson have combined for only four solo tackles and two assists, but they have dominated the line of scrimmage. If you go back through the last two games, there have been quite a few times when either player was in the backfield forcing a running play outside or flushing a quarterback out of the pocket. If they keep finding their way into the backfield, it would make things far easier for our untalented linebackers.

The bad:
Linebackers: A lot of people have been concerned about this group since Stewart Bradley blew out his knee during a fundraiser a few weeks ago, but I have been concerned about the weakest part of the defense since February. Bradley does have the potential to be a good player, but as a group, these guys are terrible. Last year, Bradley, Chris Gocong, Akeem Jordan and Omar Gaither came up with just 5.5 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 interception. This year, all I have seen from the linebackers is wide open tight ends, and I expect more of the same as we approach the regular season.
The offensive line: I know this group has been more decimated by injuries than any other part of the team, but the backups are professional football players fighting for jobs. There is no reason for eight penalties from the offensive line in two preseason games.
In the first game, they did an excellent job opening holes for McCoy and Buckley, but against the Colts, they were constantly being pushed around. The running backs gained just 22 yards on 16 carries against the Colts because the offensive line looked like they were still running non-contact drills.
Jeremy Maclin: I didn’t expect Maclin to perform as well as DeSean Jackson did during his rookie season, but Maclin has shown more reasons for why he slipped in the first round than reasons why he was taken in the first round.The 19th pick in the draft has muffed two punts and shown none of the explosiveness that I was looking for, even against backups and guys who won’t be in the NFL in two weeks. He needs to focus on what he does best and show why the Eagles can finally cut Hank Baskett or Reggie Brown.
The undecided:
Michael Vick: I would not expect to see anything fancy out of the Eagles when Vick is on the field for these last two preseason games. I am guessing that Andy Reid will have him run the offense as a pocket quarterback, but not do anything special. If Reid is smart, he will not allow teams to get any film on Vick that they couldn’t get from his time in Atlanta. He shouldn’t show his hand on any non-quarterback formations or plays that Vick will run during the regular season.
Overall, if these are the Eagles that show up on Sept. 13 against Carolina, it is going to be a long season. Luckily, Westbrook, Trent Cole, and most of the offensive line should be on the field that day, and the Panthers will see why the Eagles are going to be a dangerous team this year.
***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we’ll talk about the Eagles’ third preseason game, along with the red-hot Phillies bats and another blown save by Brad Lidge.

Vick may be despicable, but he deserves to play football

2009-08-14T11:48:00.000-04:00

Let me start off this column by saying that I think Michael Vick is complete scum for the heinous crimes that he committed. Dogfighting and the brutal killing of dogs are disgusting and despicable acts.

However, let's put this in perspective. Right now, there are men in the NFL who directly were involved in the death of human beings. Actual people died as a result of the acts committed by current NFL players.

In 1998, Leonard Little failed several sobriety tests after running a red light and slamming his Lincoln Navigator into a 47-year-old woman's car. The woman died the next day, and Little was sentenced to 90 days in jail after being convicted of involuntary manslaughter. Little still can be found rushing the quarterback for the St. Louis Rams.

Donte Stallworth struck and killed a man with his car a few months ago, and he was sentenced to just 30 days in jail for his crime. Stallworth is still under contract with the Cleveland Browns, and will only miss one year of football.
Ray Lewis spent time in jail after being charged with double murder in 2000, but wound up pleading guilty to obstruction of justice. Despite that, Lewis has been to 10 Pro Bowls in his career, was on the cover of Madden 2005, and just signed a $44.5 million contract extension.

So if two people can die from the direct actions of NFL players, and Ray Lewis played some role surrounding the death of two more, why is there so much outrage over the Eagles signing Michael Vick?

In total, Vick served 19 months in jail and lost out on more than $100 million. That is far more time in jail and money lost than Lewis, Little and Stallworth combined, yet his actions didn't hurt a single person.

Heck, there are people in Philadelphia who want to let convicted cop killer Mumia Abu-Jamal roam free on our streets, and our president wants us to worry about the treatment of terrorists at Guantanamo Bay, but Vick shouldn't be allowed to play football?

I think it is time to let him show us that he has been rehabilitated, and begin to rebuild his life, which includes playing football.

Thankfully he will be playing for us, and not against us.

Now, I don't actually know how good of a player Vick will be after missing more than two years of NFL games and practices, and I never thought he was a great quarterback to begin with, but he was always a threat to break a few tackles and come up with a big play. If he is close to his former self, he could be a complete menace on the field for a few plays each week.

Opposing defensive coordinators now have to plan for the Eagles' potent offense, and then devote practice time to stopping whatever trick plays Vick will run. Could you imagine the confusion it would cause for a defense if Vick, Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy, and DeSean Jackson were all on the field at the same time? Defenses will have no idea whether the play will be a pass or a run, and then once they have figured that part out, they still will have no idea who is getting the carry or throwing the pass.

I will never like Vick as a person, but regardless of what I think about his crimes or his sentence, he has paid his debt to society, and I will root for him to succeed because he is wearing the jersey of my favorite team.

And, if you don't like that Vick is free to make $1.6 million this year to play football, then campaign against the people in Virginia who didn't make sure that he received a longer sentence.

And, if you don't like that Vick will be a person that children look up to, then be a good parent and make sure your child knows the difference between a football player and a role model.

Michael Vick is certainly not a role model, but regardless of whether we think it is right, our legal system allows him to be a football player, and in some games, he won’t be the biggest offender on the field.

Pedro is starting now, closing later?

2009-08-12T10:32:00.001-04:00

The Phillies’ lead in the National League East was trimmed nearly in half as the team spent a nice August weekend melting down on both sides of the ball. Against the pesky Florida Marlins, the hitters couldn’t make contact, and the pitchers (sans Joe Blanton) showed why reinforcements like Pedro Martinez and Brett Myers are necessary additions for the stretch run.

We all know that Martinez was signed to be a starting pitcher, but that was before the Phillies essentially stole reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee from the Cleveland Indians.

If I had to bet on it, I think Pedro will make several starts for the Phillies, but his ultimate spot on this team will be in the bullpen. In addition, I have a funny feeling that Pedro and Myers will be a devastating 1-2 punch in the late innings in September and October, similar to Ryan Madson and Brad Lidge last season, but more on that later.

Starting with Pedro, I don’t think he will be a huge upgrade over Jamie Moyer. This season, Moyer has been the definition of inconsistent, alternating between good start and bad start for the last two months, on his way to a 5.47 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, all while averaging less than six innings per start.

A lot of people are expecting Pedro to put up much better numbers than the 46-year-old Moyer, but in reality, I don’t expect him to be a dominant starter.

In 2008, Pedro made 20 starts, and threw longer than six innings just three times, posting a 5.61 ERA, with a 1.57 WHIP, while averaging 5.5 innings per start. Those numbers are eerily similar to Moyer’s 2009 campaign.

Delving deeper into Pedro’s numbers last season, compared to the first three innings, his stats plummeted in the fourth through sixth innings. In the middle trio of innings, his strikeouts-per-inning were way down, while his walks, batting average against, and slugging percentage against were much worse compared to early in the game.

In fact, his strikeouts-to-walk ratio was 2.88 in the first three innings of his starts, but just 1.44 in the next three innings, and all of the numbers were even worse in the seventh inning.

This statistical trend is the complete opposite of the work Pedro did with the Mets in 2005 and 2006 (I left out 2007 because he only made five starts that season), when he actually improved as the game went on.

Now, imagine if Pedro could come out firing all his bullets for just one inning. If he isn’t going to represent a huge upgrade over Moyer because of his durability, and the four spots in the playoff rotation are already decided, why not turn him into a relief pitcher?

So what has to happen for Pedro to make the switch to the bullpen?

First, Pedro needs to have trouble going deep in games as a starter, posting similar numbers to Moyer. Second, Brad Lidge’s struggles in the ninth innings continue. Finally, the Marlins or Braves start winning some games, which will force Charlie Manuel to think that playoff baseball isn’t a guarantee.

At that point, I could see Charlie going back to 2007-mode, when he relied solely on his most trusted relievers to help complete the most amazing comeback in baseball history. That season, Manuel used J.C. Romero, Tom Gordon and Brett Myers for a staggering 38 appearances in the final 16 games, because they were the only guys he trusted with a lead.

This season, if Lidge, who has now given up runs in seven out of his last 14 appearances, continues to struggle, I don’t think Charlie would be hesitant to give him the hook, because as we have seen numerous times, he isn’t the type of coach to worry about salary or ego when making on-field decisions.

If Lidge isn’t getting the job done, Charlie will find someone else who can, which brings us to Myers and Pedro.

After being sidelined for more than two months with a hip injury, Myers is close to returning to the Phillies, and because of conditioning and arm-strength, he is heading straight to the bullpen. Myers loved the closer role in 2007, and last year struggled as a starter because of his desire to pitch out of the bullpen. Throw in the fact that Pedro is about as competitive as a person can be, and you have the makings of a phenomenal back-end of the bullpen.

By no means am I saying this is what will happen in the final seven weeks of the season, but don’t be surprised if Charlie goes with his gut, and Pedro and Myers are closing out games in September and October.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we’ll talk about the Eagles’ first preseason game, along with the Phillies’ new pitching staff, and how long Jamie Moyer has left with the Phillies.

Phillies add an ace, future still intact

2009-07-29T16:10:00.005-04:00

A few weeks ago, I used this space to implore Lower Makefield Township resident Ruben Amaro, Jr., to trade for Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay. I said that losing any number of minor leaguers was worth it to add the best pitcher in baseball to the Phillies' starting rotation.

Well, after a few weeks of exchanging names back and forth, the Blue Jays asking price for Halladay became too great when they wouldn't budge from their demands of rookie of the year candidate J.A. Happ, in addition to the Phillies' top three minor league prospects.

After balking at the Blue Jays' outrageous request, the defending World Champions of Baseball (I still hear Harry Kalas' voice every time I write that) added Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, without giving up Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown. As a result, major kudos go out to the Phillies general manager for bringing in a pitcher who is almost as good as Halladay, yet comes with a far lower price tag.

With this trade, the Phillies have cemented their place in October, boasting two top-of-the-rotation aces in Lee and Cole Hamels, along with the best offense in the National League. Lee doesn't guarantee the Phillies a return to the Fall Classic, but his presence gives them a better starting rotation than any team they would encounter along the way.

All things being equal, I would rather have traded for Halladay, but by no means is this the typical "this guy is good enough" trade that we have all grown accustomed to seeing out of Philadelphia teams. Without a doubt, adding Lee is the big blockbuster deal that we hoped for every July, yet never saw come to fruition.

Since the start of last season, Halladay is 31-14 with a 2.72 ERA, but Lee's numbers are on the same level, having compiled a 29-12 record, with a 2.79 ERA. This year, Lee has struggled to find the win column, going just 7-9, but that is the result of the pitiful run support he has received. He still has posted an ERA of 3.14, which ranks seventh in the American League, but his team has scored three runs or less in 12 of his 21 starts this season. Looking at the Phillies' offense, he shouldn’t have to worry about that in the next two months.

While it is obvious that both pitchers would be welcome additions to Phillies' starting rotation, which ranks 21st in the majors in ERA, the cost of adding Halladay was just too great.

By going after Lee, the Phillies were able to hold on to the building blocks of future playoff runs, instead of seeing that window close when Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Brad Lidge and several others are wearing different uniforms after 2011.

Happ has been a revelation for the Phillies, going 7-1 with a 2.97 ERA as a rookie. Splitting time between Clearwater and Reading, Kyle Drabek has baffled minor league hitters, going 11-2 with a 2.78 ERA, along with 123 strikeouts in 128 innings pitched. Taylor and Brown have been equally impressive, as each outfielder is hitting above .300 for the season, while showing 30-30 potential in the process.

In comparison, the prospects in the Lee trade are all on the decline. Jason Knapp, a highly touted prospect who is currently on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, is the centerpiece of the deal. While in Lakewood (Low-A), Knapp struck out 111 batters in 85.1 innings, but is not dominating, posting a 4.01 ERA against kids who are fresh out of high school. Lou Marson is a good prospect, but not a guy worth keep around when a Cy Young winner becomes available. Marson is hitting .294, but isn't defensively sound enough to push Carlos Ruiz for a job on the Phillies.

The other two players in the deal - Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald - were top prospects coming into this season, yet both have faltered in Lehigh Valley.

There was a time when Carrasco was the next best thing in the Phillies' system, yet in 2009 he has disappointed, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA in 20 starts for the Iron Pigs. Donald was a contender for a spot on the big club during Spring Training, but didn't do enough to crack the 25-man roster, and since then, his stock has dropped exponentially. He was a .300 hitter each of the last two seasons, yet hasn't been able to figure out Triple-A pitchers, hitting just .236, with one home run, and did not show the glove or arm necessary to play third base when Pedro Feliz's contract expires.

After all of the on-the-field numbers have been dissected, the dollars and cents are also on Lee's side, as Halladay would have cost the Phillies approximately $22 million through 2010, while Lee will cost approximately half that amount. Next year, Lee's option is for just $9 million, compared to the $15.75 million option in Halladay's contract.

Overall, would the 2009 Phillies be better with Halladay compared to Lee? Slightly, but remember, Halladay could come up on the wrong end of an October pitchers' duel just as easily as Lee could, and if that happens, we still will have a bright future for 2011 and beyond.