Section race down to the wire

With two games remaining, the Section Two boys soccer race is certainly close.

Quickly, since I'm swamped with the print edition today, here's a look at what to expect.

First, here are the current standings. I'm only including the top four, since Solanco and Lebanon are eliminated.

1. Garden Spot – 9-4-1 (28 points)
2. E-town – 8-4-2 (26 points)
2. Conestoga Valley – 8-4-2 (26 points)
4. Ephrata – 8-6-0 (24 points)
Last night, Garden Spot beat Ephrata 1-0 to take sole possession of first place and the Spartans are now in the driver's seat. If they win out, they are section champs, but a couple of things could happen. Let's take a look at what each team has remaining on their schedule.

Garden Spot: Oct. 8 vs. CV; Oct. 10 @ Solanco
E-town: Oct. 8 @ Lebanon; Oct. 11 vs. CV.
CV: Oct. 8 @ Garden Spot; Oct. 11 @ E-town.
Ephrata: Oct. 8 @ Solanco; Oct. 10 @ Lebanon.

Here's what that all means (try and stay with me here):
We'll assume that Ephrata will win its final two games, which they should. That will put them at 10-6-0, worth 30 points.

Garden Spot should end with a win against Solanco, which would put them at worst at 10-5-1, worth 31 points. So barring an upset by Solanco, Ephrata is essentially eliminated.

E-town should have no trouble with Lebanon.

So the big two games are CV @ Garden Spot tomorrow and CV @ E-town Saturday. If CV beats Garden Spot (and E-town should be rooting hard for that), then the section will essentially be decided on Saturday. The Bears can still win the section, but they need CV's help. If Garden Spot loses one of its last two and the Bears win out, they will be section champs, because that would make spot 10-5-1 and E-town would be 10-4-2, and would win by a point. Here's where it gets tricky though. If CV wins out, it would win the section. Now, if Spot, E-town and CV all go 1-1 over the last 2 games (which is possible) and Ephrata wins out, GS would still win the section, but Ephrata would move up to second place. Whew. We'll know a LOT more after Wednesday afternoon, and I'll post something first thing Thursday morning.

The bottom line for E-town is this: they need to win out. Sure, they can squeak into the L-L playoffs by going 1-1 down the stretch, but they will need help from other teams to do so, and that's not something you want to rely on. If they win out, they're in the league playoffs. They might not be section champs, but they'd be in the playoffs. A lot hinges on that Garden Spot/CV game on Wednesday. I'll check back Thursday.