"It's early."

That's the popular refrain you hear in the early goings of spring training. You probably don't stop hearing it until after St. Patrick's Day.

But the race for the fifth spot in the Phillies rotation began a week ago today, when pitching coach Rich Dubee sounded off the gun in a postgame meeting with the press. Most of the competitors still have 3-4 starts remaining.

But it's never too early, at least in our minds, to take a quick stock of where the four candidates stand as we round first and head to second base (read: halfway home, to seeing who nails down the vacant spot).

Your leader: J.A. Happ.

The 26-year-old left-hander keeps getting better, according to Dubee. The pitching coach raved about Happ's improved changeup yesterday and, when asked what Happ had to do to impress the coach, he said, "keep doing what he's doing."

So Dubee, who will have a big say in who wins this job, has liked what he's seen thus far. Happ also showed poise in big situations last year, both as a starter in September and in relief in Game 3 of the NLCS.

Happ starts today against what should be a stacked Tampa Bay Rays lineup. If he continues to shine - Happ has a 2.25 ERA this spring - the fifth starter's job is his to lose.



On Happ's Heels: Chan Ho Park.

Park really wants the job. He came to Philly because they said they would allow him to compete for a starter's job.

The feeling is he would accept a role out of the bullpen, and as a lot of people have said, the organization might prefer to have him there to be the durable, multiple-inning reliever the Phils had for most of the season last year in Chad Durbin.

But Park was nearly unhittable two starts ago against Toronto - he retired nine in a row at one point. Yesterday, in a intra-squad outing, Park hit two batters in the first inning and allowed a solo home run (to Chris Coste) in the third.

If he out-pitches Happ, which is still possible, it will be hard for the Phillies to prevent him from winning the job.


The Dark Horse: Carlos Carrasco.

Carrasco has struggled in his last two starts. But he still has the best arm among the candidates.

If things all of a sudden click the next time he pitches (Saturday against the Astros), I think he has an outside shot. To paraphrase something Charlie Manuel says a lot, "talent wins out."



Destined for Lehigh Valley: Kyle Kendrick.

It's not completely over, but Kendrick's chances of winning the job aren't good for two reasons: 1) he hasn't pitched great the last two times out; 2) the Phillies have other, more enticing options.

If Kendrick was competing with Adam Eaton, Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia, he might have a shot. But Happ and Park aren't also-rans. Both are hungry for the opportunity and have showed off their stuff.

Kendrick has not. He has a sinker... but hasn't developed any other effective pitch. Hitters have adjusted. He has not.

Kendrick coughed up 8 runs on 10 hits yesterday. Something tells me Manuel and company won't forget that when they make the final call.

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Here are the lineups for today's "World Series rematch." Jayson Werth was a late scratch - Jason Ellison took his spot.

I'll check on that, obviously.

Phillies:

1. Miguel Cairo, 2B
2. Jason Ellison, CF
3. Raul Ibanez, LF
4. Ryan Howard, 1B
5. Geoff Jenkins, DH
6. Greg Dobbs, 3B
7. John Mayberry Jr., RF
8. Jason Donald, SS
9. Ronny Paulino, C

Pitchers: Jamie Moyer, J.A. Happ


Rays:

1. Jason Bartlett, SS
2. Carl Crawford, LF
3. Evan Longoria, 3B
4. Carlos Pena, 1B
5. Pat Burrell, DH
6. Gabe Kapler, CF
7. Dioner Navarro, C
8. Gabe Gross, RF
9. Adam Kennedy, 2B

Pitcher: James Shields


UPDATE: Jayson Werth slightly tweaked his groin, according to Phillies media relations coordinator Kevin Gregg.

The injury isn't serious; Werth was set to make the trip, but the team decided it didn't make a whole lot of sense since it's only a spring training game.