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Insight, observations (and whatever else comes to mind) on the trails of the team that ended the quarter century-long parade drought in the City of Brotherly Love - the Philadelphia Phillies.



Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Why the Phils can and should get Roy Halladay

The Toronto Blue Jays have said they're opening to listening to trade offers for ace Roy Halladay.

Boy, that quasi-excitement about Pedro Martinez died pretty quick, eh?

There's a reason for that - Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball. Johan Santana isn't bad either, don't get me wrong, but given the choice I'm taking Halladay.

In the last few years, pitchers like Cliff Lee and Zach Greinke and Chris Carpenter and CC Sabathia have put together great years. But Halladay is something none of these guys have been for the last five years: consistently dominant.

If he's available, every team in baseball, if they can afford his salary, makes a call to see what it takes to make a trade. As for Halladay's salary, it's pretty much a bargain in baseball terms: the rest of the $14.25 million he's owed this year and $15.75 million next year (which is a steal, really). He can become a free agent after the 2010 season.

But that's one of the reasons you don't hesitate, you make the trade. Halladay wouldn't be a three-month rental - you'd have him for '10, too. The Phils were going to be in the market to add a pitcher anyway since Brett Myers is a free agent after this year.

So what would it take? Start with the top pitching prospects in the system (Kyle Drabek, Jason Knapp, Antonio Bastardo), throw in the top position players in the minors (Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, Jason Donald, Lou Marson) and keep in mind the Jays would probably prefer at least one major-league ready pitcher (J.A. Happ).

You're probably going to have to give up three or four of those names.

Would you make the deal for Drabek, Taylor, Donald and, say, Andrew Carpenter?
How about for Happ, Knapp and Brown?

First things first: you don't want to mortgage your entire future. I'd be hard-pressed to deal three of my top prospects if I was running a team.

But I'd still do it. Prospects are projected to be major leaguers, or projected to be major league All-Stars.

Roy Halladay is a major leaguer, he is an All-Star and he is, if not the best pitcher in baseball, in the top 3.

The Phils current nucleus - Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Jayson Werth, Brad Lidge, etc - is made up of guys hovering between 28 and 32 years old. This is their prime, their time to win.

Think about it this way -- by the time Drabek isn't just in the major leagues but over any early-career growing pains, will Ryan Howard (eligible to be a free agent after '11) still be around?

If there is a name that makes me pause through the process, it's J.A. Happ. While I don't think he's a guy who will have a 3.04 ERA for entire career as a starter, he is a very effective cog of the current rotation, and trading him in a deal for another starter means you still have a bit of a hole in the rotation.

But we're not talking Brad Penny here. We're talking Halladay. I think you take the risk of dealing Happ - and relying on some combo of Rodrigo Lopez/Andrew Carpenter/Carlos Carraso/Kyle Kendrick to hold down the fifth spot in the rotation.

Because with Halladay alongside Cole Hamels, the Phils have a very good chance to win two out of every five games. Think about what having Cole Hamels meant during the playoffs; and now multiply that by two.

Having Halladay means having two aces. You make the trade and you make it before someone else beats you to it.

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