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Monday, March 16, 2009

Bracketology







Thanks to Princeton blogging machine Jon Solomon, someone on the blog took care of posting the final two MAAC postseason selections -- Niagara as a 3 seed in the NIT and Rider as a road team in the CollegeInsider tournament -- while I was on deadline in the office.

So thanks, Jon, for taking care of that. As always, thanks to everyone for commenting. It seems that in the spirit of March Madness, reader McAff Attack -- a frequent commenter and frequent critic of mine -- even softened up and neglected to insult me.

And hey, if you're a MAAC fan, why not be in a (relatively) friendly mood?

Siena is representing the conference as a 9 seed and could make it two NCAA tournament wins in two years by beating Ohio State in Dayton. Niagara has a home game against URI and a realistic chance to get to the Garden for the NIT Final Four if it plays well. And although they will still be endlessly ridiculed in the comments section, Rider is going to the postseason for the second straight year.

I talked to Tommy Dempsey about an hour after the Broncs accepted the CIT bid, and Dempsey said the Broncs were "in the mix" for the CBI, which at the time hadn't finished its field. Rider got an offer from the CIT to play at Liberty, didn't have an invite to the CBI at the time, and accepted the invitation to travel to Lynchburg, Va. Tuesday night for a date with Seth Curry and the Flames.

So would Rider have gotten a CBI bid if it waited?

A look at the CBI field reveals that, as many people predicted, Rick Giles and Co. settled for some pretty weak teams who were willing to fork over $60,000 to host first-round games. The field includes Oregon State (156) and Wichita State (158), both of whom have less impressive resumes than most of the CIT field. Because of the financial disparity between the teams, those two teams have the least impressive resumes but are hosting games while the likes of UTEP (RPI 80) and Vermont (97) are on the road.

Since Rider wouldn't have hosted a game, it's likely a CBI invite would never have come. Aside from St. John's (RPI 141) -- a team included because of its name recognition and not its resume -- the CBI road team with the lowest RPI is Boise State, which at 110 is 13 spots ahead of Rider.

That isn't to say Rider didn't have a shot, and all postseason discussions have to come with the disclaimer that RPI is a general indicator of relative strength and not an ABSOLUTE indicator of strength. But the point remains: if you remove the teams who wrote a $60K check to host a game and you remove St. John's because of the name recognition factor, there isn't a CBI team whose resume is clearly inferior to Rider's.

With all that said -- and tournament inclusion speculation is always a fun thing to do -- it's tough to argue it makes much of a difference. The CBI clearly has a stronger field (average RPI of 109 to the CIT's 131) but the difference between the fields is minimal compared to the gap between the NIT and CBI (and of course, the NCAA and NIT).

So if you're a Broncs fan, you can wake up today knowing your team's season isn't over. For at least some fans, I suspect that will be enough.

If you're a Purple Eagles fan, you can wake up today knowing that with four starters coming back next year, the NIT could provide a nice springboard for a team that could be in at-large discussions next year.

And if you're a Siena fan, you can wake up today and finalize your travel plans for Dayton.

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Fairfield got hosed.

March 16, 2009 11:11 AM 
Anonymous Jon Solomon said...

You're very welcome.

Thankfully this year the CBI bracket came out *before* 2:00 am ET!

Jon Solomon
princetonbasketball.com

March 16, 2009 11:20 AM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

GO RIDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1

March 16, 2009 12:07 PM 
Anonymous McCaff Attack said...

If you wake up today and you're a Rider fan, you're team is awful.

If you wake up today and you're Ben Doods, then, well... just quit at life.

March 16, 2009 10:44 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you wake up today and you're McCaff, you're still clueless...

March 16, 2009 10:56 PM 
Blogger Ben Doody said...

McAff: I knew you couldn't stay away from insulting me for too long. Thanks for the note, but watch your grammar. Rider fans, in YOUR view, have an awful team. YOU'RE demonstrating intense hatred for Rider in saying so.

March 17, 2009 3:59 PM 

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