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Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Press MAAC Index, Week 6: A lot of unanswered questions

For the second straight week, the focus in the Index is on where teams stand heading down the stretch and what they have to do to earn a favorable seed in the MAAC tournament.

Siena has taken some of the drama away by cruising to a 14-0 start and wrapping up the top seed in the tournament almost a week before Valentine's Day. Similarly, you can bet the house that Marist will finish 10th and Manhattan will finish no higher than eighth.

Aside from that, there's a whole lot left to be decided.

1. Siena: Records: 21-4 overall, 14-0 in the MAAC; RPI: 32; Position: Stayed the same

It's possible Siena will lose a MAAC game at some point, but I sure wouldn't bet on it. It's clear now that Fairfield gives the Saints more problems than anyone else in the league, but even last night's 69-67 nail-biter wasn't quite as close as the score indicates. Although it was a one-possession game in the final minute, the Stags added a meaningless Derek Needham 3 on their last possession to pull with two.

Judging by what we've seen over the past two months, that may best the rest of the MAAC can do.

2. Fairfield: Records: 16-8, 9-5; RPI: 114; Position: Up two spots

How do you move up two spots after a 1-1 week? By taking a good Saint Peter's team to the woodshed, taking a great Siena team down to the final minute, and doing it all without two injured starters -- a sign that as long as Needham and Anthony Johnson are on the floor, Ed Cooley will find a way to make this team a contender.

3. Iona: Records: 18-7, 10-4; RPI: 85; Position: Down one spot

Unless the Gaels completely go into the tank in the last two weeks, this season will go down as a smashing success. Iona was picked ninth in the preseason coaches' poll and will almost certainly finish in the top four, with the top two remaining a distinct possibility. But the Gaels' blowout loss at Siena indicated they're not quite ready for primetime, and their shaky performance the following game against Marist showed they're not quite as good as they looked during their eight-game winning streak.

4. Saint Peter's: Records: 14-10, 9-5; RPI: 146; Position: Down one spot

Thankfully for the Peacocks, they found a way to get past Canisius and avoid back-to-back losses. They clearly still belong in the same grouping with Fairfield and Iona, but they need good showings in their next two games -- at Loyola and at home against Rider.

5. Rider: Records: 14-12, 7-7; RPI: 143; Position: Stayed the same

Another week, another set of ups and downs. It's becoming more and more difficult to know which Rider team will show up: The one that won impressively at Fairfield and took it to Niagara in the second half last night, or the one that lost at home to Loyola. The schedule is manageable but not easy, meaning anything from 3-1 to 0-4 is possible in the Broncs' final four games.

6. Niagara: Records: 13-13, 6-8; RPI: 174; Position: Stayed the same

Before the season began, I thought the loss of Benson Egemonye made Niagara slightly less dangerous than Rider. Little did I know that while that appears to be true, it would mean the Eagles are a bottom-half team that could end up in the play-in round. Like Rider, the talent is undeniable. The question is, can Niagara play with enough discipline to stay afloat down the stretch?

7. Canisius: Records: 11-14, 6-8; RPI: 198: Position: Stayed the same

The Golden Griffs really could have used Sunday's game at Saint Peter's, in which they forced overtime only to lose partially because of an unintentionally made free throw by Frank Turner. The Griffs are almost certain to split their next two league games -- against Marist and Siena -- meaning their final two -- at Loyola and at Rider -- will decide where they fall in the final standings.

8. Loyola: Records: 12-12, 5-9; RPI:185; Position: Stayed the same

That the Hounds aren't a mortal lock for the play-in round after all they've endured -- losing Brett Harvey and Jamal Barney, their two top scorers and two best players, for a combined 10 games -- is a testament to the job Jimmy Patsos has done. If they manage to get hot and finish in the top six, it will be one of the most impressive turnarounds in the league.

9. Manhattan: Records: 8-10, 3-11; RPI: 245; Position: Stayed the same

The Jaspers' home loss to Loyola made it a near certainty that they'll finish ninth, making Barry Rohrssen's job status the biggest question down the stretch.

10. Marist: Records: 1-23, 1-13; RPI: 336; Position: Stayed the same

You can't help but feel bad for Chuck Martin. The losses have piled up to such a degree that the Foxes know they're going to lose before they step on the court -- a daunting challenge for any coach, and an especially tough one for one staring at back-to-back last-place finishes.

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