Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Comeback Kids

It turns out the “Comeback Kid” has a “Comeback Spouse.”

It was back in 1992 when a second-place showing in New Hampshire propped up the struggling campaign of a then-obscure Arkansas governor. Bill Clinton went on capture the Democratic nomination and the White House.

Fast-forward 16 years. All the polls indicated Hillary Clinton was trailing red-hot Barack Obama by double-digits after his huge win last weekend in the Iowa Caucus.

Clinton was reeling, clearly showing the emotion of the campaign during a response to a question in New Hampshire on Monday. There was talk of a major campaign shakeup. No one expected her to beat Obama in the Granite State. Some even wondered if her candidacy could survive.

So what happened? Better check those poll numbers. Clinton stunned the experts – and the nation – by posting a huge upset win that likely reinvigorated her campaign.

She got 39 percent of the vote, compared to 36 percent for Obama. John Edwards trailed badly with a third-place finish, getting just 17 percent of the vote.

The comebacks weren’t limited to the Democratic side of the ledger. Sen. John McCain completed his Lazarus act, bringing his campaign off the slag heap to post an equally amazing win, and position himself as the possible GOP front-runner. Mitt Romey again finished second.

We’re left with a couple of questions. Why do so many put so much faith in pre-election polls? And how exactly did Clinton manage to pull this off when her own campaign seemed as stunned by her win as anyone else?

The polls actually got it half-right. They nailed the McCain win in New Hampshire. But they were shot out of the water on the Democratic race. Obama failed to generate the same amount of passionate turnout among young voters that propelled him to a win in Iowa.

One key was the women vote. All we heard all week was how women were turning their backs on Hillary and moving to the Obama camp. But she won big among women in New Hampshire. She beat him among women by 13 percent.

The message coming out of Iowa was all about change. Now the buzzword is about comebacks.

Both races are now wide open again and look like they will remain so at least until the Super Tuesday faceoff on Feb. 5 when two dozen states head to the polls.
Along the way there will now be added focus on Michigan next week, and South Carolina on Jan. 19 for Republicans and the 26th for the Dems.

Hell, at this rate Pennsylvania might even be in play on April 22.

Now that would really be a comeback.

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