On The Edge Blog


Wednesday, December 3, 2008

All quiet on the free agency front

Free agency is upon us, and seeing how the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies were built, I am prepared for a quiet three months, and I couldn’t be happier.

When the Phillies took the field for the game 5 of the World Series (which they won!), six of the nine starters were drafted by the Phillies, and another, Carlos Ruiz, was signed out of Panama as a teenager.

Looking further, Brett Myers and Ryan Madson were also drafted by the Phillies, while Brad Lidge, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton were acquired for prospects that were drafted by the Phillies. Going even deeper, Jayson Werth, Greg Dobbs, J.C. Romero, and Scott Eyre were waiver-wire pickups that retiring General Manager Pat Gillick brought home from scrap heap. It is pretty clear that free agency is not where the Phillies will find the players necessary to lead them back to the World Series next year.

Unlike the New York Yankees, who are attempting to purchase an entire pitching staff through free agency, the Phillies head into the offseason just looking to fine tune their roster. Even Chase Utley’s hip surgery, which is expected to keep him from playing cold-weather baseball, will not change those plans, as prospect Jason Donald will probably get a chance to shine in Utley’s place.

With Scott Eyre already re-signed as the second lefty in the bullpen, the Phillies can complete their pitching staff by re-signing Jamie Moyer and adding a righty to pitch the middle innings. If Moyer returns, the rotation’s fifth starter will come from inside the organization, with J.A. Happ as the front-runner for the job, but he will have to earn it because there are several other options including top prospect Carlos Carrasco, along with Kyle Kendrick and his new changeup.

On offense, the Phillies have to make one decision, and that is whether or not their longest tenured player comes back for more. Other than Manny Ramirez, Pat Burrell is the best right-handed outfielder on the market.So does Pat come back? Honestly, I don’t think the Phillies have a choice in this situation. They have to bring him back because they can’t go into the season thinking that Geoff Jenkins, Greg Dobbs, and Matt Stairs can replace his production, because none of them can hit a lefty to save their life.

Obviously, Burrell is a liability on defense, but his lack of desire to become a designated hitter limits his options and increases the Phillies’ chances of bringing him back.So how does he come back and why would he go? If Burrell, who turned 32 during the playoffs, wants a five-year contract like Aaron Rowand did last offseason, new General Manager Ruben Amaro should thank him for his service and show him the door. Like Rowand, the loss might sting a little for the first year, but we’re already laughing at the Giants about the four years they have left on Rowand’s deal, and we’ll laugh at the last three or four years of any five-year deal Burrell signs.

At that point, Amaro should focus on signing someone like Milton Bradley or Casey Blake. Jayson Werth won’t be in a platoon to start 2009, so his numbers should jump to Pat Burrell territory, so whoever the Phillies sign to replace Burrell just has to provide Werth’s output, not Burrell’s output.

However, if Burrell wants to sign for three years to stay in Philadelphia, sign him up! The key to Burrell’s game is hitting homers and drawing walks. At this point, his bat speed is still at the point that he can turn on a fastball. He can also foul off pitch after pitch until he gets his fastball or draws a walk, but how long can that last?

At some point, his bat speed is going to slow down, and he will start swinging through pitches with two strikes instead of fouling them off, and then a lot of those walks will turn into strikeouts. Five years is too long, but three should be just right.

That is all of the decisions the new general manager needs to make. Isn’t it wonderful to go into free agency as the World Series champions, and watch everyone else scramble to figure out how to get their hands on what you just won?

***
Like the “On the Edge” column? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show, where, this week, we will look ahead to the Eagles battle with the Giants. The Kahuna and I will also analyze all of baseball’s offseason wheelings, dealings and rumors.

3 Comments:

Anonymous since it's still football season said...

Eli Manning was named the NFC Offensive Player of the Month for November after leading the Giants to a 4-0 record. In those games he completed 77 of 121 passes for 889 yards.

December 3, 2008 10:46 PM  
Anonymous A "Shot" in the Dark said...

http://blog.indecision2008.com/2008/12/03/stephen-colbert-sympathizes-with-plaxico-burress/

December 3, 2008 11:20 PM  
Anonymous how unlikely said...

Gee, I never would have seen that coming. You're awesome, Matt!

For the record, the Giants are 3-0 without Burress and have scored 104 points. 20 INT for Eli!!!

December 3, 2008 11:41 PM  

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