On The Edge Blog


Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Forget Pedro, go get Doc

Being in the crowd on Wednesday, October 29, 2008 as the Phillies won their second World Series title in franchise history is a night that I will never forget. I would love to relive that night again this year, and what Lower Makefield resident Ruben Amaro, Jr. does in the next few weeks could determine whether or not I get that chance.

Because the Phillies’ general manager lives within the coverage area of this newspaper, I am writing directly to him when I say: “Go get Roy Halladay!”

I fully expect the Phillies to win the National League East for the third consecutive season because the Mets are hurt, the Braves can’t hit, and the Marlins are too inexperienced to hang around for the next three months. However, once the calendar turns to October, I don’t believe that the Phillies have enough pitching to repeat as the “World Champions of Baseball.”

Ruben, you made an excellent decision when signing Raul Ibanez to play leftfield, instead of Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu or Milton Bradley, but now is the time to make the biggest decision a general manager can make: preserve the future or go for broke.

In my opinion, when Roy Halladay is considered “going for broke,” you can’t sit around and think about the future. It’s not like you would be mortgaging the future for an overpriced, back-of-the-rotation arm like Jason Marquis or Jarrod Washburn (do Eric Milton and Cory Lidle ring any bells?), you would be getting one of the best pitchers in baseball for the past decade.

Not only is Halladay a true ace, he would be perfect for the Phillies and Citizens Bank Park. Adding Halladay and his 1.31 career groundball-to-flyball ratio to the starting rotation would finally give the Phillies a true groundball pitcher. Halladay is also a workhorse, throwing at least 220 innings in each of the last three seasons, and his propensity for finishing what he started—19 complete games in his last 81 starts—would help the Phillies bullpen, which has been overworked this season due to a starting rotation that has a 4.98 ERA at the All Star break.

Looking at the Phillies roster as it is currently constructed, the proverbial “window of opportunity” closes after the 2011 season. Joe Blanton and Jayson Werth are free agents after the 2010 season, and then Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, Ryan Madson and J.C. Romero are free to walk away after the 2011 season.

Unless a Steinbrenner is interested in purchasing the Phillies, we need to maximize the output of this core group before it is too late, because all of them are going to command more money or years than the Phillies are willing to (or reasonably should) commit to these players.

I don’t care how good we all think Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown, Lou Marson and Jason Donald are, if the Toronto Blue Jays want any combination of these players, then we should be asking to see their passports.

Yes, these are the hot names in the Phillies’ farm system this year, but since Cole Hamels made his Major League debut in 2006, how many of the “hot names” have flamed out? While J.A. Happ is pitching like a solid number two starter, where are Carlos Carrasco, Jason Jaramillo, Michael Bourn, Gavin Floyd, Chris Roberson, Josh Outman, Scott Mathieson, Adrian Cardenas, Brad Harman, Greg Golson, Gio Gonzalez or Mike Costanzo? More importantly, the Phillies have other players like Anthony Gose, Travis d’Arnaud, Jason Knapp, Joe Savery, and Vance Worley developing in the farm system as the next “hot names,” not to mention John Mayberry, Jr., and Antonio Bastardo who are Major League ready right now.

I don’t know about you, but I’d rather have a Cy Young Award winner in the prime of his career than a bunch of guys who we all think will be good, but based on recent history, probably won’t be worth anything in three years.

While it is obvious to everyone that Halladay would improve the Phillies, my guess is that it all comes down to money, but this time, there is no excuse not to make the blockbuster trade.With $25.5 million coming off the books with the contracts of Adam Eaton, Geoff Jenkins and Brett Myers expiring, the Phillies have more than enough money to pay for the raises that Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and several others are due to receive in 2010.

There has to be room in the budget to cover Halladay’s 2010 salary, and according to several reports, the Phillies received a large insurance claim on Myers, which would pay for the remainder of Halladay’s salary this season.

Maybe I’m being shortsighted, but if Kyle Drabek is expected to be a staff ace someday in the future, why not trade him for a guy who is a staff ace right now and can pitch twice in each playoff series for the next two years?

By the way, none of this takes into account that something is obviously wrong with Cole Hamels, who has won just one start in the last six weeks.

***

Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we’ll talk about what went wrong and what went right in the first half of the season for the Phillies.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

"It’s not like you would be mortgaging the future for an overpriced, back-of-the-rotation arm like Jason Marquis or Jarrod Washburn ..."

Um, you do know that Marquis leads the National League in wins, right?

July 20, 2009 9:49 AM  
Blogger Matthew Fleishman, Yardley News Editor said...

I'll pass on the notoriously awful second-half pitcher, who is having a career first half, while striking out the fewest batters per nine innings of his career. If he ends up 19-8 with an ERA in the low 3s, then remind me of this post, and I will admit I was wrong, but I'd bet on Marquis' ERA being above 4 by the end of the season.

July 20, 2009 12:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm sure he'll look forward to that apology.

July 21, 2009 9:28 AM  

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