On The Edge Blog


Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Fightin' Phils vs. the Evil Empire

If you listen to the national media, you might not know it, but our Philadelphia Phillies are the defending World Series champions, and despite what you may have heard, the New York Yankees have not dethroned our Fightins.

And they won’t dethrone our Fightins.

If this were 1999, I would be worried about the Phillies having to face the Yankees in the World Series. Those Yankees had won two of the last three World Series titles, and seemingly could pull October victories out of thin air.

Luckily for us, it is 2009, not 1999.

There isn’t a “Yankee mystique” for the Phillies to worry about.Our Phillies won’t have to play at “The House That Ruth Built,” which was the home of 26 World Series champions. They will play games 1 and 2 at “The House That Steinbrenner Bought,” which is home to none of that storied history in the Fall Classic.

In fact, right now, the Phillies are the team with postseason mystique on its side.Nineteen Phillies know how it feels to be called “World Champions of Baseball,” while just five Yankees have won World Series rings, and four of those—Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada—are holdovers from New York’s success in the late 90s. The rest of the Bronx Bombers, such as Alex Rodriguez, C.C. Sabathia, and Hideki Matsui, have only known failure in the postseason.While there is no mystique about these Yankees, they are a good team.However, they aren’t the best team in the World Series this year.

We know that both of these squads can hit, as the Phils and the Bombers each led their league in runs scored during the regular season, so this series will come down to pitching, which is where Philadelphia has an edge, despite what everyone else tells you.

Yes, Rivera is the best closer in baseball history, but he can be beaten. While he has the most saves in postseason history (Fun fact: Brad Lidge is second), and sports a miniscule 0.77 career ERA this time of year, he also has a few of the biggest blown saves in postseason history.If you think the Phillies’ hitters don’t stand a chance against Rivera, I will kindly ask you to check out how the Yankees’ seasons ended in 2001 and 2004. After that little history lesson, go ask Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton about how tough the ninth innings are when trying to close out the Fightins.

I won’t try to fool myself into thinking that Lidge is better than Rivera at closer, but for the first eight innings, the Phillies hurlers have the upper-hand.

Everywhere you turn, someone on television will tell you about how great Sabathia has been for the Yankees, but do you know who has been better? Cliff Lee.

While Sabathia has struggled against the Phillies in his last three starts, giving up 12 runs in 17 2/3 innings (6.11 ERA), you know who is 2-0 with a 1.89 ERA over the last two seasons against the Yankees? Cliff Lee.

Do you know who has a better ERA, more complete games and more shutouts than Sabathia this season? You guessed it; it’s Lee.

As for the rest of the starting rotations, I would take Pedro Martinez, Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton over A.J. Burnett and Pettitte, especially once the Yankees’ trio begins pitching on short rest because they don’t have a fourth starter.

While Sabathia has been a workhorse, both Burnett and Pettitte have trouble going deep into games, averaging just over six innings per start, while allowing too many baserunners. The pair comes into the postseason with WHIPs of 1.40 and 1.38, respectively, with Burnett allowing 4.22 walks per nine innings, and Pettitte surrendering 3.53 BB/9.

From the National League dugout, none of the Phillies’ starters allow free passes at nearly this rate, which should concern Yankees manager Joe Girardi.

This means that the Phils need to continue their patience at the plate, and as long as they don’t go into a prolonged slump with runners in scoring position, neither pitcher should give the Phillies’ hitters a problem.

Moving to the bullpen, while J.A. Happ, Chan Ho Park, Ryan Madson and Chad Durbin all could pitch more than one inning regardless of the batters due up, the Yankees middle relief is completely a mix-and-match unit. Phil Coke and Damaso Marte have each pitched in four games and logged just 1 1/3 innings pitched this postseason. Joba Chamberlain, despite all of the hype, has recorded just eight outs in six appearances out of the bullpen.

At this point, Girardi only has four pitchers that he trusts to send to the mound, and other than Rivera, none are worthy of being feared.

After all of this analysis, I can find plenty of reasons for the Phillies to repeat, and if I wanted to, I could use the same set of statistics to show why the Yankees could win their 27th World Series title.

At this point, the Phillies need to keep playing like champions, while getting contributions from the entire lineup. Do that and they should win.

Regardless of all the hype, this year’s World Series promises to be much more competitive than last year’s, and hopefully we will be attending a parade late next week.

Prediction: This series will go six games, but “New York, New York” won’t be the Frank Sinatra tune playing after the final out.

***
Like the “On the Edge” blog? Hear more of my opinions about Philadelphia sports every Friday at 3:30 p.m. on WBCB 1490 AM during the Coffee with Kahuna show. This week, we will discuss the first two World Series games, and preview the NFL’s version of the Philadelphia/New York rivalry.

6 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

soon-to-be 27-time World Champs!

Good call putz!!!

November 2, 2009 12:10 AM  
Blogger Matthew Fleishman, Yardley News Editor said...

Not so fast! Lee pitches tonight, so don't expect the Yankees to celebrate at CBP ...

Also, where was this heckling the last 13 months when I've been right pretty much every time, especially when the Eagles play the Giants or for the last five playoff series and two division titles for the Phillies?

Can't be right all the time, but if I had to guess, Lee wins tonight, Pedro beats Pettitte, who will be pitching on short rest, and then hopefully Hamels doesn't touch the ball in game 7.

November 2, 2009 11:42 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don't know what heckling you're referring to. I came across the blog while reading trentonian.com.

Clearly, though, you're a homer.

November 2, 2009 3:41 PM  
Blogger Matthew Fleishman, Yardley News Editor said...

Winning ugly still counts as a win. If only Howard would join Utley in trying to win this World Series.

November 2, 2009 11:54 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

And just like that, a new championship drought in Philly is under way.

November 5, 2009 9:59 AM  
Blogger Matthew Fleishman, Yardley News Editor said...

It's been 53 weeks since our last title! I went 24 years without one, so 53 weeks isn't so bad.

November 5, 2009 11:02 AM  

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