NJ Democrats


Monday, April 14, 2008

Newsmax/Zogby Poll: Clinton holds slight edge over Obama in Pa.

UTICA, New York - Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton of New York leads party rival Barack Obama of Illinois by a narrow margin in the all-important Pennsylvania primary heading into the final stretch before Democrats there head to the polls April 22, a fresh Newsmax/Zogby telephone poll shows.
Clinton wins 47% support to Obama's 43% among likely Democratic primary voters, the survey shows. Another 2% are still holding out for someone else, while 8% said they are yet undecided.
Clinton enjoys strength in western Pennsylvania, including Pittsburgh, and central Pennsylvania, including Harrisburg, both regions of which are heavily populated by conservative Democrats.
Obama enjoys an edge in the eastern part of the state, including Philadelphia.
Obama leads among younger Democratic Party voters, while Clinton leads among older voters. The age break point appears to be age 35. Among those likely voters under age 35, Obama leads by a 61% to 32% margin, while Clinton leads among those over age 35 by a 50% to 39% margin.
It is important to note that Pennsylvania's pool of likely voters over age 35 is much larger than the pool of voters younger than age 35.

Wednesday, April 2, 2008

Poll: Obama overtakes Clinton in Pennsy

Raleigh, N.C. – Barack Obama has taken the lead over Hillary Clinton 45-43 in
Pennsylvania, according to the newest survey from Public Policy Polling.
It’s a remarkable turn around from PPP’s last Pennsylvania poll, conducted two and a
half weeks ago, that showed Clinton with a 26 point lead in the state. That poll was
released at the height of the Jeremiah Wright controversy and the day before Obama’s
major speech on race in Philadelphia. Obama has been trending upward in national
polling and in many state level polls since then and this survey reflects that pattern.

“In the last few weeks there has been increasing attention given to the fact that a
continuing divisive Democratic nomination fight could hurt the party’s chances of
defeating John McCain this fall,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling.
“The major movement in Obama’s direction in Pennsylvania could be an indication that
Democrats in that state think it’s time to wrap it up.”
Obama is narrowing the gap with white voters, trailing just 49-38, while maintaining his
customary significant advantage with black voters. He leads that group 75-17.
Obama also leads among all age groups except senior citizens, with whom Clinton has a
50-34 advantage. The poll shows the standard gender gap with Obama leading by 15
points among men while trailing by 10 points with women.
PPP surveyed 1224 likely Democratic primary voters on March 31 st and April 1st. The
survey’s margin of errors is +/- 2.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed
and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.
Public Policy Polling had the most accurate numbers of any company in the country for
the Democratic primaries in South Carolina and Wisconsin, as well as the closest
numbers for any organization that polled the contests in both Texas and Ohio.
Complete results are attached and can be found at www.publicpolicypolling.com.