Wednesday, December 3, 2008

College spreads

Well, I am back in the same spot as last season. If I go 5-0 this week in my college picks, I can finish the season above .500 after what seems like a miserable journey in prognosticating.

Tough choices, though, especially since there are so many disparate lines.

Florida being favored by 9 1/2 points against Alabama is full-on ridiculous. Obviously, the oddsmakers in Vegas do not believe the Crimson Tide's 12 wins were that impressive. Because the other 10 teams in the SEC were so far down this year, the best wins by the Tide this year were over Clemson (who ended up 6-6), Georgia (who they dominated for a half, and by the way, didn't look impressive against anyone defensively) and Ole Miss (who they beat by three). They also struggled to beat LSU, who everyone else with any talent at all handled pretty easily.

Florida, meanwhile, had an unusual season in that they went 10-1 in I-A games and also went 10-1 against the spread. In 2006, the year the Gators won the national title, they were 5-7 against the number. This year, they covered every spread in games they won, which the Gators are not known for.

In the Big 12, while No. 2 Texas sits at home, Missouri is sent to be sacfrificed to Oklahoma. The line shot up from an opening 14 to a current 17, and it may rise some more. I originally thought it would be 20, so I am sticking with the Sooners. They are too powerful, and Missouri has not shown enough defense this season.

Tulsa is a 13-point favorite in the CUSA championship game, seemingly another anticlimactic finish to a conference season. It depends on which East Carolina shows up, though.

At least the ACC, which has been the most competitive league this season, has a title game with a close line. Boston College or Virginia Tech are favored by one, depending on who you ask, or some have it as a pick game.

I think there is the potential for some ridiculous bowl spreads, too. If Florida ends up playing Utah, look for an 18-point spread or more. In the Rose Bowl, don't be surprised if Penn State is a double-digit underdog to USC.

If Florida and Oklahoma play in the title game, I expect Florida to be a 1 or 1 1/2 point favorite, but the Sooners will likely be favored against Texas or Alabama, possibly more than a TD against the Tide even if they beat Florida.

Saturday should be interesting in any case. I am leaning toward picking Florida, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Pittsburgh to give me a chance at a winning record. Stay tuned for my picks in Friday's edition.

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