Thursday, December 11, 2008

Not enough seats at Heisman table

Texas Tech coach Mike Leach is outraged that his quarterback, Graham Harrell, was not invited to the Heisman dinner this week as a finalist.
They base the invites on the voting results, and obviously, Harrell was not even close in the voting or he would have gotten a ticket to NYC.
I agree with Leach in that the Heisman has a history of bring in guys for the dinner who have absolutely no shot at winning the award. Last year, Chase Daniel and Colt Brennan were as likely to win the award as I was, but they got to sit at the table and have their seasons recognized. I agree that Harrell - and maybe even his teammate Michael Crabtree, too - got hosed on the New York trip.
What is interesting about Harrell being frozen out is that he went from Heisman favorite to having no chance in one foul swoop - that's right, the beating by Oklahoma.
Yes, Tech lost 65-21 to Oklahoma and it could have been worse, but Harrell does not play defense, and he was behind the 8-ball from the start of the game. I know that loss was painful and on national television, and the Red Raiders got embarrassed, no doubt, but was that really Harrell's fault? He won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and deservedly so.
Truthfully, Tim Tebow, Colt McCoy and Sam Bradford are the only three guys who could possily get the Heisman - not because they are the only three who deserve it, but because they rode the PR machine to the finish line. In my opinion (I am first on the waiting list in Jersey for a Heisman vote, but no vote this year), Bradford is the next Ken Dorsey, who has great numbers behind a great line. He should win the Davey O'Brien Award for quarterbacks, but Tebow and McCoy are complete football players. They would be 1-2 on my ballot, with Crabtree probably third, even though Rutgers' Kenny Britt had better numbers than him. Percy Harvin of Florida and DeMarco Murray of Oklahoma are probably the two best athletes I saw this year on offense, but neither had the big numbers or enough PR momentum to win the award.
I think this will be a close race among the big three, but there was probably room for one more seat at the table, at least for dinner.

Give some of these coaches a shot

I don’t want to pile onto the large group already decrying the lack of minority coaches in major college football, but shame on Toledo for rushing to hire Oklahoma State defensive coordinator Tim Beckman. The Cowboys gave up 61 points to Oklahoma and allowed 27 per game this season – not exactly Buddy Ryan type numbers.
Kudos to New Mexico for giving Mike Locksley a shot. He is a terrific recruiter (he rounded up most of the guys from Florida’s 2006 national championship team) and he knows offense, which the Lobos will need to survive the wild west.
There are now four black coaches in the FBS, or whatever you call it now, and that is too few. Here’s hoping Turner Gill gets a shot at Auburn or Syracuse, as well as guys like Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong, whose D by the way yielded just 12.8 ppg, less if you take out scrub TDs when the backups were in.

Bowl full of jelly - and crap

The bowl season is here, and there are plenty of signs that there are too many games.

I mean, come on, nothing says “Great season, fellas!” like a berth in the magicJack St. Petersburg Bowl. People complain about the BCS system for determining a champion, but there are flaws in the entire bowl selection system.

First, the conference tie-ins screw up the whole lineup. The six major conferences and their leaders are the architects of the system to begin with, and they want to make sure they control the big bowl dollars.

With Boise State being excluded from the BCS, the Broncos were forced all the way down to the Poinsettia Bowl, which is the secondary bowl in its own town. As it turns out this year, fellow Top 12 BCS reject TCU was matched up with Boise, making this one of the most appealing early bowls.

But the game will be played on Dec. 23. Why couldn’t we get these teams matched up in a New Year’s Day Bowl of some sort? Because somehow, somewhere, someone thinks Iowa vs. South Carolina is a more interesting game.

By the way, speaking of Boise and the BCS, how does a team that finished ahead of Ohio State by three times the margin that Florida beat out Texas in the standings get frozen out of the Fiesta Bowl? While we are on the topic, follow me here. If the Big Ten is so bad that Penn State is No. 8 after just a one-point loss on the road to a Jan. 1 team, why does it need two teams in the BCS? Further, if Ohio State is a full point behind the Lions in BCS average despite playing USC on its schedule, I repeat the same question. Boise proved its mettle as a Fiesta Bowl team, and it should have been given another shot.

Some other gripes I have about the bowls this year:
- Why is Clemson playing on New Year’s Day? They barely qualified for a bowl at all, and they haven’t had an impressive win all season.
- I don’t like the fact that everyone assumed – even during the MAC championship game last week – that Ball State would beat Buffalo. That assumption screwed up all the MAC bowl pairings because the Bulls already were essentially committed to the International Bowl before the game. They deserved better.
- Wake Forest vs. Navy was not a terrific game to watch the first time. Do we have to watch it again? And to kick off bowl season no less…
- Texas Tech should have been a BCS team, but the Red Raiders might get a better game from Ole Miss than they expect.
- Vanderbilt didn’t get a true bowl “trip” in its return to the postseason, but it did get homefield advantage. There is a team that was a win over Duke away from the Outback Bowl on New Year’s Day.
- Western Michigan vs. Rice – where do I get my tickets?
- The Independence Bowl has a proud tradition, one that is not bolstered by Northern Illinois vs. Louisiana Tech.

More on these games as the bowls crank up. Next week, I will do my bowl picks against the spread and I will link the column here.

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

College spreads

Well, I am back in the same spot as last season. If I go 5-0 this week in my college picks, I can finish the season above .500 after what seems like a miserable journey in prognosticating.

Tough choices, though, especially since there are so many disparate lines.

Florida being favored by 9 1/2 points against Alabama is full-on ridiculous. Obviously, the oddsmakers in Vegas do not believe the Crimson Tide's 12 wins were that impressive. Because the other 10 teams in the SEC were so far down this year, the best wins by the Tide this year were over Clemson (who ended up 6-6), Georgia (who they dominated for a half, and by the way, didn't look impressive against anyone defensively) and Ole Miss (who they beat by three). They also struggled to beat LSU, who everyone else with any talent at all handled pretty easily.

Florida, meanwhile, had an unusual season in that they went 10-1 in I-A games and also went 10-1 against the spread. In 2006, the year the Gators won the national title, they were 5-7 against the number. This year, they covered every spread in games they won, which the Gators are not known for.

In the Big 12, while No. 2 Texas sits at home, Missouri is sent to be sacfrificed to Oklahoma. The line shot up from an opening 14 to a current 17, and it may rise some more. I originally thought it would be 20, so I am sticking with the Sooners. They are too powerful, and Missouri has not shown enough defense this season.

Tulsa is a 13-point favorite in the CUSA championship game, seemingly another anticlimactic finish to a conference season. It depends on which East Carolina shows up, though.

At least the ACC, which has been the most competitive league this season, has a title game with a close line. Boston College or Virginia Tech are favored by one, depending on who you ask, or some have it as a pick game.

I think there is the potential for some ridiculous bowl spreads, too. If Florida ends up playing Utah, look for an 18-point spread or more. In the Rose Bowl, don't be surprised if Penn State is a double-digit underdog to USC.

If Florida and Oklahoma play in the title game, I expect Florida to be a 1 or 1 1/2 point favorite, but the Sooners will likely be favored against Texas or Alabama, possibly more than a TD against the Tide even if they beat Florida.

Saturday should be interesting in any case. I am leaning toward picking Florida, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Boston College, and Pittsburgh to give me a chance at a winning record. Stay tuned for my picks in Friday's edition.

Sunday, November 30, 2008

MLB cold stove

Is anyone interesting ever going to sign in Major League Baseball?

And what of this report that there are no takers for Francisco Rodriguez? That seems ridiculous, but if the Mets get him, they will be dangerous.

I would just like to see somebody sign a deal somewhere, besides Mike Koplove that is.

Four's a crowd for BCS

College football is just starting to get interesting.
As it stands right now, there are only four teams who can seriously entertain dreams of winning the BCS national title – Alabama, Texas, Oklahoma and Florida.
USC and Penn State needed upsets on Saturday to stay in the hunt, but there is almost no way for them to advance now.
The SEC winner will finish ahead of the Trojans no matter what, and even if Texas/Oklahoma is upset by Missouri somehow, the other one that stays home in the clubhouse will, too.
So, we’re down to football’s version of the Final Four, except only one half of it will play itself out, if that. Pundits keep saying Florida vs. Alabama is a quasi-national semifinal, but I still think it is possible that Texas and Oklahoma will have a rematch in the BCS title game.
If Alabama beats Florida, it’s simple – The Tide vs. the Big 12 champ.
If Florida wins, picking among the Gators, Longhorns and Sooners will be controversial.
Interestingly enough, though, Florida is No. 2 in the AP poll behind Alabama. If the Gators win next week, they will enter the bowl season at No. 1 in the AP rankings. If they are frozen out of the title game, they will likely face Boise State or Ohio State in the Sugar Bowl. Florida could win that game and be crowned AP champions, while one of the Big 12 teams becomes BCS champion, and we are back to Split Champion Land.
The Sooners looked devastating on offense again last night, and Texas didn’t look bad either in routing Texas A&M. Florida crushed a good Florida State team by 30 in their house.
Picking between those three will not be easy if the two that get to play next week win their games. Texas would have the most to gripe about, as the Horns headed into this week No. 2 in the BCS and won their last game by 40. They could not only fall behind Oklahoma, but be jumped by Florida as well.
Other notes from this weekend:
* Forget Oregon State's missing running back - how do you let Oregon drop 65 on you in your house when you can make the Rose Bowl? It may be a while before the Beavers get anywhere near this opportunity again.
* Kansas beating Missouri will just drive up the point spread for the Big 12 title game. My guess is that Texas will be favored by 12 over Mizzou, with Oklahoma potentially being a two-touchdown favorite at least.
* Speaking of spreads Chris Fowler of ESPN said his sources in Vegas said Florida would be an 8-1/2 point favorite over unbeaten Alabama this week. My guess is that was an exaggeration, and Percy Harvin's injury will make sure Florida is at most a slight favorite.

ESPN blackout

For anyone who attempted to watch football Saturday afternoon, ESPN had a surprise for football fans.
Many areas that received the Maryland-Boston College game on ABC (including the Northeast) were supposed to get Florida-Florida State on ESPN2. Instead, many cable and satellite systems saw the game blacked out. On DirecTV, part of the game was aired before it was suddenly cut off.
This was an unusual move, since ESPN rarely blacks out games with no logical reason. Representatives at DirecTV said it was ESPN’s decision to not make the games available, and no one at ESPN could be reached for comment last night.
This was annoying, particularly for fans of the Gators and Seminoles. This was probably the second or third most important game of the entire day, and it was not seen in its entirety by most markets in the East. This may end up hurting Tim Tebow’s chances to repeat as the Heisman winner, as many voters did not see the game.
Let's hope this was an aberration.