On The Edge Blog


Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Phillies add an ace, future still intact

A few weeks ago, I used this space to implore Lower Makefield Township resident Ruben Amaro, Jr., to trade for Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Roy Halladay. I said that losing any number of minor leaguers was worth it to add the best pitcher in baseball to the Phillies' starting rotation.

Well, after a few weeks of exchanging names back and forth, the Blue Jays asking price for Halladay became too great when they wouldn't budge from their demands of rookie of the year candidate J.A. Happ, in addition to the Phillies' top three minor league prospects.

After balking at the Blue Jays' outrageous request, the defending World Champions of Baseball (I still hear Harry Kalas' voice every time I write that) added Cliff Lee, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, without giving up Happ, Kyle Drabek, Michael Taylor or Dominic Brown. As a result, major kudos go out to the Phillies general manager for bringing in a pitcher who is almost as good as Halladay, yet comes with a far lower price tag.

With this trade, the Phillies have cemented their place in October, boasting two top-of-the-rotation aces in Lee and Cole Hamels, along with the best offense in the National League. Lee doesn't guarantee the Phillies a return to the Fall Classic, but his presence gives them a better starting rotation than any team they would encounter along the way.

All things being equal, I would rather have traded for Halladay, but by no means is this the typical "this guy is good enough" trade that we have all grown accustomed to seeing out of Philadelphia teams. Without a doubt, adding Lee is the big blockbuster deal that we hoped for every July, yet never saw come to fruition.

Since the start of last season, Halladay is 31-14 with a 2.72 ERA, but Lee's numbers are on the same level, having compiled a 29-12 record, with a 2.79 ERA. This year, Lee has struggled to find the win column, going just 7-9, but that is the result of the pitiful run support he has received. He still has posted an ERA of 3.14, which ranks seventh in the American League, but his team has scored three runs or less in 12 of his 21 starts this season. Looking at the Phillies' offense, he shouldn’t have to worry about that in the next two months.

While it is obvious that both pitchers would be welcome additions to Phillies' starting rotation, which ranks 21st in the majors in ERA, the cost of adding Halladay was just too great.

By going after Lee, the Phillies were able to hold on to the building blocks of future playoff runs, instead of seeing that window close when Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Brad Lidge and several others are wearing different uniforms after 2011.

Happ has been a revelation for the Phillies, going 7-1 with a 2.97 ERA as a rookie. Splitting time between Clearwater and Reading, Kyle Drabek has baffled minor league hitters, going 11-2 with a 2.78 ERA, along with 123 strikeouts in 128 innings pitched. Taylor and Brown have been equally impressive, as each outfielder is hitting above .300 for the season, while showing 30-30 potential in the process.

In comparison, the prospects in the Lee trade are all on the decline. Jason Knapp, a highly touted prospect who is currently on the disabled list with a shoulder injury, is the centerpiece of the deal. While in Lakewood (Low-A), Knapp struck out 111 batters in 85.1 innings, but is not dominating, posting a 4.01 ERA against kids who are fresh out of high school. Lou Marson is a good prospect, but not a guy worth keep around when a Cy Young winner becomes available. Marson is hitting .294, but isn't defensively sound enough to push Carlos Ruiz for a job on the Phillies.

The other two players in the deal - Carlos Carrasco and Jason Donald - were top prospects coming into this season, yet both have faltered in Lehigh Valley.

There was a time when Carrasco was the next best thing in the Phillies' system, yet in 2009 he has disappointed, going 6-9 with a 5.18 ERA in 20 starts for the Iron Pigs. Donald was a contender for a spot on the big club during Spring Training, but didn't do enough to crack the 25-man roster, and since then, his stock has dropped exponentially. He was a .300 hitter each of the last two seasons, yet hasn't been able to figure out Triple-A pitchers, hitting just .236, with one home run, and did not show the glove or arm necessary to play third base when Pedro Feliz's contract expires.

After all of the on-the-field numbers have been dissected, the dollars and cents are also on Lee's side, as Halladay would have cost the Phillies approximately $22 million through 2010, while Lee will cost approximately half that amount. Next year, Lee's option is for just $9 million, compared to the $15.75 million option in Halladay's contract.

Overall, would the 2009 Phillies be better with Halladay compared to Lee? Slightly, but remember, Halladay could come up on the wrong end of an October pitchers' duel just as easily as Lee could, and if that happens, we still will have a bright future for 2011 and beyond.

4 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only thing I hear Harry saying now is, "HELP! I CAN'T BREATHE IN THIS BOX! LET ME OUTTA HERE!"

July 30, 2009 5:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's sad what Mets fans are reduced to when their team is rendered irrelevant in July. They can't comment about sports because their team is under .500 and their rivals are the defending champs and just picked up a cy young winner.

July 30, 2009 11:35 PM  
Anonymous David W. Sale, Jr. said...

Stop kicking me in the head! Ouch!!! That hurts, you drunk white trash pieces of filth!!! Stop it, you're KILLING ME!!!!!

August 1, 2009 2:30 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The only thing more irrelevant than the Mets is this blog.

August 2, 2009 4:42 PM  

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