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Tuesday, January 5, 2010

Press MAAC Index, Week 1: A head-scratching start to the season


The Press MAAC Index -- the blog's weekly power rankings -- debuts today with a list that hardly resembles the blog's or anyone else's preseason rankings.

Of course, a few things have played out very similarly to how everyone thought they would in October: Siena is the unquestioned team to beat, and Manhattan and Marist look destined for the play-in round.

But even the biggest Rider detractor couldn't have predicted the Broncs' only MAAC wins would have come by a combined five points against Marist and Manhattan. And even the biggest Fairfield fan wouldn't have guessed the Stags would lose Greg Nero and Warren Edney for the year and still be sitting at 3-1 through four games.

Just as a lot has changed over the past two months, just as much could change over the next two, making the MAAC tournament field vastly different from the field as it stands now.

But here's my best shot at where the teams stand through four league games:

1. Siena (11-4 overall, 4-0 MAAC, 44 RPI)

Sure, the Saints had lost some of their preseason glow by mid-December and likely won't reach the top 25 after being one spot away in November. But as they've showed in winning every conference game by double digits, they're just as strong -- if not stronger -- a frontrunner as they were in October.

2. Niagara (10-6, 3-1, 114)

I had doubts after the loss to Iona, but the Eagles' convincing win last night over Fairfield made them an easy choice for the No. 2 slot. I still don't think Saturday's game at Siena will be close, but Bilal Benn is on a short list of Player of the Year candidates, and Tyrone Lewis could easily be a first-team pick again.

3. Fairfield (10-4, 3-1, 131)

In a sense, the jury is still out on the Stags, who have neither a win over a top-tier team or a win in a true road game, their two road wins coming at the empty Yantili Center and the quiet HSBC Arena. But if the season ended today, the easiest selections for postseason honors would be Derek Needham as Rookie of the Year and Ed Cooley as Coach of the Year.

4. Saint Peter's (7-7, 2-2, 230)

The Peacocks are in exactly the same spot I had them in my preseason rankings, but with more questions than I expected when the season began. A lot of how the next month plays out will depend on how quickly Wesley Jenkins returns to top form after sitting out the Siena game after being in a car accident and scoring only seven points last night against Marist. But even before the accident, the Peacocks had a shaky December that included a loss to Wagner and a 42-point performance at Rutgers.

5. Iona (9-6, 1-3, 111)

Aside from Rider, the Gaels may be the most puzzling team in the MAAC. I know Providence isn't exactly Villanova, but beating the Friars by nine was a major statement for a team that lost in the play-in round of the MAAC tournament last year. The Gaels also took Florida State to overtime and, of course, took down Niagara on the road. But it's hard to be considered a contender when you're 1-3 in the league.

6. Rider (9-7, 2-2, 144)

Put this comment from last night in the category of things I never thought I'd hear Tommy Dempsey say after the ultra-confident attitude the Broncs took early in the year: "Right now it's not about where we fall in the standings. It's not about our overall record. I'm not looking big picture right now. I'm looking at getting better every day. I don't care what Siena did tonight, I don't care what Niagara did. I don't care what anybody did. We're not in that place right now. We're not good enough to think about those things."

7. Canisius (7-8, 2-2, 187)

With two of the top four scorers in the league, including a Player of the Year candidate in Frank Turner, and a win at Southern Miss, the Griffs have moved from laughingstock to team no one should take for granted. Yet as their loss to Manhattan demonstrated, they're nowhere near consistent enough to be a top-half team.

8. Loyola (8-6, 1-3, 158)

After watching the Hounds in person Saturday, I came away thinking that they're definitely better than they were last year, and agreeing with Jimmy Patsos that we'll know how much better in a couple of weeks. Last night's game was tough to judge because Loyola didn't have Brett Harvey, but the fact remains that the Hounds were run off the floor by Niagara, lost to Canisius and very nearly lost to Rider despite at one point leading by 20.

9. Manhattan (6-8, 1-3, 246)

It's not that the Jaspers, who finished tied for fourth in the league last year, lost any irreplaceable players. It's just that the players they did have, combined with the addition of Rico Pickett, weren't as good as the young, improving players on teams like Saint Peter's and Canisius. That's why I picked them 10th in my preseason rankings, and although Marist looks like the strong frontrunner for the bottom spot, the Jaspers did hand the Foxes their first win after an 0-11 start.

10. Marist (1-12, 1-3, 345)

We all knew the Red Foxes would be bad, but this bad? Bad enough to have the third-worst RPI in the country? Bad enough to lose 75-38 to Hartford? No, I didn't think they'd be this atrocious, even though they played the first semester without R.J. Hall. Hall is back, but Casiem Drummond, who also figured to be a second-semester addition, was ruled academically ineligible, all but sealing the Foxes' fate in or near the MAAC cellar.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why do the posters on this blog not realize that rider is 8 and 7 because the player of the year has been awful. He is the POY and he has 1 FG in 4 games. This has nothing to do with the coach. When your star is not a winner, there is only so much you can do coaching wise.

January 5, 2010 9:45 PM 
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree with the premise that the start to the season is a headscratcher. Why? Siena is right on top where expected and Niagara second. Just because Rider stinks doesn't mean it's a headscratcher.

January 7, 2010 8:30 PM 
Blogger Ben said...

Anon,

As I wrote in the post, the reality is even the biggest Rider hater wouldn't have predicted they'd be where they are.

If anyone thought they'd look like a middle-of-the-pack team, I didn't hear them saying or writing it in November. In fact, I didn't see a single list of preseason rankings that didn't have them in the top three.

And anyone who picked Fairfield as a top three team would have been institutionalized two months ago.

So that's why it's a head-scratcher. Not sure why that's so hard to understand.

January 8, 2010 8:55 AM 

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