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Insight, observations (and whatever else comes to mind) on the trails of the team that ended the quarter century-long parade drought in the City of Brotherly Love - the Philadelphia Phillies.



Thursday, October 15, 2009

NLCS: Matchups and a prediction (Sorry, Phils fans)

The Phillies next step to return to the World Series begins in about five hours. This should be a very entertaining series - think Game 4 of the NLDS - since these are the two top teams in the league, both with star power, young talent and veteran playoff experience.

Thinks about it - Pedro vs. Manny. Isn't that just great theater?

Anyway, on to the matchups.


Catcher: Carlos Ruiz vs. Russell Martin. The Dodgers backstop hasn't been an All-Star caliber player in the last two years. While Martin's numbers have been on the decline, Ruiz has established himself as a very underrated defensive catcher who also has a knack for hitting in the postseason (a career .279 hitter in the playoffs). Edge: Phillies.


First base: Ryan Howard vs. James Loney. This might be closer than you think. Loney hit .281, drove in 90 runs and plays a very good first base. But Howard is an MVP candidate with the best power production in baseball and a knack for rising to the occasion when his team needs him most. Edge: Phillies.


Second base: Chase Utley vs. Ronnie Belliard/Orlando Hudson. This is the most lopsided matchup. Hudson started the season strong, but Belliard took the job at the beginning of the postseason. Utley is clearly the best second baseman in baseball. Edge: Phillies.


Third base: Pedro Feliz vs. Casey Blake. Don't discount Feliz's defense. It's been an underrated factor in the Phillies success in the last two years. But Blake's bat is more consistent and potent. Edge: Dodgers.


Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins vs. Rafael Furcal.
Physically, these two guys are very similar. Excellent defensive players with speed and a knack for fueling the top of their respective lineups. But Rollins, a former MVP, is more likely to take over a game with his bat. Edge: Phillies.


Left field: Raul Ibanez vs. Manny Ramirez. This is tough. Manny hasn't been Manny while Ibanez's bat slowed in the second half. Ibanez did, however, heat up in the NLDS. Still, Manny is the more imposing force and scarier to opposing pitchers. Edge: Dodgers.


Center field: Shane Victorino vs. Matt Kemp. Victorino deserves a gold glove more than any other Phillies player. He was also arguably the team's MVP until Howard heated up in August. But Kemp is a similarly-tooled player who has power, too. Edge: Dodgers.


Right field: Jayson Werth vs. Andre Ethier. These two are clones. Similar, game-changing power and ability to hit in the clutch. Both streaky. The only difference is one is left-handed and the other is right-handed. Werth may get a slight edge because of his speed, but Ethier has two walkoff hits against the Phils this year. Edge: Even.


Starting pitching: Padilla-Wolf vs. Lee-Hamels? Really? The Phils appear to have the gargantuan advantage here. But don't sleep on Clayton Kershaw. This 21-year-old Texan has Cole Hamels-like talent and there's no reason he can't be to the Dodgers what Hamels was to the Phils in last year's LCS. Edge: Phillies.

Bullpen:
This might be as lopsided at the starting pitching. The Dodgers have nearly at least three guys coming out of the pen that throw as hard as Ryan Madson. They also have two lefties, in George Sherrill and Hong-Chih Kuo, who they didn't have last year that can come in to silence Howard, Utley and Ibanez. Brad Lidge is also not out of the woods. Edge: Dodgers.



Prediction:
OK, I realize that "edge" math adds up to 5-4 in favor of the Phillies. But I'm not liking how Cliff Lee isn't available to pitch one of the first two games (similarly, I'm not sure why Joe Torre didn't put Randy Wolf in Game 2). I'm also not sold on the Phils being-held-together-by-duct tap bullpen can hold up in a longer series.

The Dodgers have an underrated offense. They also are a lot like the '08 Phils: their first dance in the postseason came a year ago, and they're better and more determined because of it.

Dodgers in 6.

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