I've had some time to diagnose how the first round of the PIAA Class AAAA playoffs will shake out. Here are a couple observations I made:

Most Likely First-Round Blowout

Plymouth Whitemarsh vs. South Philadelphia. The Patriots (22-5), despite losing to Chester in District One's fifth-place game, are playing some of their best basketball. And Southern (16-11) lost two straight heading into states. And they aren't the most qualified - 5 of their losses are by more than 10 points ... ouch.

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Biggest Headscratcher

Why are Roman Catholic and Central Bucks South playing at Archbishop Ryan? I have a great appreciation for Ryan (my father's alma mater), but the gym is decrepit and dingy, and - frankly - not an ideal spot for a state game.

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Most Overrated Team

Pennsbury: Rated at or near the top in most state polls - and garnering some national attention - the Falcons have yet to demonstrate an ability to win the big game. They lost in the district semis this year (and last year) and stumbled in the state semis last season. I'm waiting for the Falcons to make me eat my words.

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Most Underrated Team

Central Dauphin East: Wouldn't want to play C.D. East, and here's why: it just knocked off the state's lone Class AAAA undefeated team (York-William Penn) to win the District Three title. It's a tough first-round draw for the winner of tonight's playback - either Glen Mills or Hazleton Area.

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Beware the Del Val

I know Plymouth Whitemarsh, Norristown and Pennsbury all made the bracket, but the Suburban One League isn't fit to tie the shoe strings of the Del Val League. A six-team league sent three teams - Penn Wood, Chester and Glen Mills - to states. It's safe to say that trio is already battle tested.